Comment

Representation ID: 22502

Received: 07/10/2021

Respondent: Persimmon Homes West Midlands

Agent: Planning Prospects Ltd

Policy HOU1 - Development Strategy


As drafted the BCP raises some very serious concerns over its inability to meet the minimum housing needs of the Black Country over the Plan period, and by some considerable margin. The Plan does not properly address the scale of unmet need it has identified and relies too heavily on neighbouring authorities to deliver its unmet needs. In doing so it fails to address in any tangible way how the homes needed in the Black Country during the BCP period can ever be delivered and fails to meet the tests of soundness set out in the Framework.

Even those sites that are relied upon in the draft BCP, as set out in its Table 3, are unlikely to deliver even the 47,837 net new homes it anticipates over the Plan period, such that the
true extent of unmet need within the BCA areas is likely to be significantly greater than the already substantial 28,239 homes it acknowledges.

In this respect, Paragraph 61 points directly to the "positively prepared" test of soundness (in particular) as set out at Paragraph 35 of the Framework. Plans are "positively prepared" if they provide a strategy which "as a minimum, seeks to meet the area's objectively
assessed needs1; and is informed by agreements with other authorities, so that unmet need from neighbouring areas is accommodated where it is practical to do so and is consistent with achieving sustainable development" (our emphasis underlined).




1 Footnote 21 of the Framework sets out that "where this relates to housing, such needs should be assessed using a clear and justified method, as set out in paragraph 61 of this Framework".


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Policy HOUl of the draft BCP sets out that sufficient land will be provided to deliver at least
47,837 net new homes over the period 2020 - 2039. In its justification to Policy HOUl the draft BCP sets out that this will deliver a 10% increase in housing stock but confirms that will accommodate only 63% of current Local Housing Need up to 2039 within the Black Country, noting the Local Housing Need (LHN), or the minimum number of homes needed, in the Black Country over the BCP plan period is 76,076 homes when calculated following the
PPG's Standard Method2• The draft BCP (paragraph 3.21 for example) recognises that this amounts to a shortfall of 28,239 homes, or in other words 37% of the minimum number of homes needed in the Black Country will not be delivered by the Black Country Authorities
{BCA) between 2020 and 2039.


The BCP sets out that the BCA are asking their neighbouring authorities to work with them to meet this substantial shortfall under the "Duty to Cooperate" {DTC). The draft BCP refers to the current position being set out in the Draft Plan Statement of Consultation which will be elaborated on at Publication stage.

The Statement of Consultation sets out that those neighbouring authorities being relied on by the BCA include South Staffordshire, Lichfield, Cannock Chase, Shropshire and Telford & Wrekin and indicates that currently there have been offers from those authorities amounting to between 8,000 and 9,500 homes. This approach will not, by some margin, deliver the minimum number of homes currently needed in the Black Country over the BCP period. There is no explanation in the plan as to how the sizeable shortfall, or the homes that are needed in the Black Country over the BCP period, will be made up merely that "the engagement will extend beyond the adoption of this plan and will build on the partnership approach developed across the Greater Birmingham and Black Country Housing Market Area to address the combined housing shortfalls of the Birmingham and Black Country Authorities in particular". In essence, the draft BCP appears to be suggesting that its very significant unmet housing need will be dealt with at some point in the future as part of an already significant regional scale strategic challenge, without any clear or specific indication
of exactly how that will be achieved, or what guarantees or fallback mechanisms will be put in place to ensure that the Black Country's housing needs will be met.

This approach has not been successful in the Region previously as the West Midlands has struggled to meet the unmet needs of Birmingham for a number of years, following the adoption of the Birmingham Development Plan {2011 to 2031) in January 2017 with its stated housing shortfall of circa 37,900 homes. Indeed, the Black Country Authorities are relying on some of the same authorities that Birmingham City Council was relying upon to meet their unmet need including South Staffordshire and Lichfield for example. This unmet need is only likely to increase post 2031 as Birmingham grapples with an increased requirement for housing under the new Standard Methodology, a period commensurate with the latter part of the BCP period.

In essence the BCP need to;






2 Calculated in the Black Country Housing Market Assessment: Final Report (March 2021)


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• More clearly address its inability to meet the minimum identified housing needs of the BCA over the Plan period

• Reconsider its over reliance on neighbouring GBBCHMA authorities to address its needs.

The net plan requirement is exacerbated even by a cursory review of the component sources of housing land supply, not least the following;

Increasing Housing Density- whilst some additional supply will be achieved through increasing density, this must be balanced with market demands. Whilst some sites could achieve a slightly higher density where market evidence supports this and still makes the site deliverable, it will not be suitable for all sites. Even then, increasing development densities on existing BCCS allocation sites will result in minimal increases to the Black Country's housing supply over the Plan period.

Converting Employment Land to Residential Use - It is clear that there are numerous challenges associated with bringing housing development forward on employment sites and a number of those relied upon in the BCCS have been removed as they are not suitable or developable for housing. Despite this, Table 3 nonetheless indicates that 3,091 homes (6.5% of the total anticipated supply) are still anticipated from occupied employment sites, even with the 15% discount - raising questions as to whether these sites in the anticipated housing supply are truly suitable or developable for residential use and also why these sites are being lost for employment use when the BCA have such a significant shortfall in employment land supply and cannot meet their identified employment needs to the tune of
211 ha of land.


Windfall - The draft BCP's anticipated supply also includes a sizeable windfall allowance of
8,463 homes (or 17.3% of the total anticipated supply). The Policy justification sets out that this allowance is robust as it "reflects historic completion rates for sites of less than ten homes". Paragraph 71 of the Framework says Local Planning Authorities may make an allowance for windfall sites if they have compelling evidence that such sites will provide a reliable source of supply and any allowance should be realistic having regard to the strategic housing land availability assessment, historic windfall delivery rates and expected future trends (our emphasis underlined). The BCA's reliance on historic completion rates only suggests that its windfall allowance is not supported by compelling evidence that such sites will continue to provide a reliable source of supply as required by the Framework.

Demolitions - The total net housing supply identified in Table 3 (amounting to the 47,837 net new homes referenced in Policy HOU1) is derived from a gross figure of 48,908 homes and deducting 323 homes from "Dudley Estimated Housing Renewal Demolitions" and 748 homes from "Small-scale demolition windfalls". The Urban Capacity Review Update (May
2021), however, sets out that Dudley's 10 Year Asset Management Strategy (October 2018) identified around 2,500 homes (some 12% of the Council's stock) considered not viable and red-flagged for review for strategic investment, de-investment or demolition.