Draft Black Country Plan

Object

Representation ID: 44778

Received: 11/10/2021

Respondent: Consortium of Developers

Number of people: 4

Agent: Turley Associates

2.2 While not specified, this is assumed to have been calculated using the ‘standard method’ for determining ‘the minimum number of homes needed’, as is required in all but ‘exceptional circumstances’ according to the National Planning Policy Framework4 (NPPF). It is of note, however, that the quoted figure does not quite align with the need for 4,019 dwellings per annum calculated, with a 2020 base date, in the recently published Black Country Housing Market Assessment5 (BCHMA). It likewise does not align with the current outcome of the formula, when rebasing to the current year (2021) and accounting for the new affordability ratios released in March 2021. It does not even align with the higher figures that were briefly generated earlier this year, when the method was necessarily rebased to 2021 but these updated affordability ratios had yet to be published. While Table 2.1 shows that the difference over the plan period is relatively modest, it is considered that the origin of the local housing need figure must be clarified within the next iteration of the Draft BCP.

Comment

Representation ID: 44779

Received: 11/10/2021

Respondent: Consortium of Developers

Number of people: 4

Agent: Turley Associates

Setting the minimum need in context

2.4 The resultant combined need for at least 4,011 dwellings per annum, like the slightly lower figure of 4,004 dwellings per annum referenced in the Draft BCP, initially appears significant and potentially challenging to meet where the authorities have jointly delivered no more than 3,129 homes in any year since 20067.

2.5 It appears markedly less so when considered in context, however. Both figures suggest a need to grow the existing housing stock of the Black Country by an average of 0.7% during each year of the plan period8, which is not unrealistic or necessarily unattainable where the West Midlands as a whole has successfully grown its stock at this exact rate on average since 2006. Almost half of its thirty authorities have performed even better, as shown at Figure 2.2 overleaf.
See attachments for Figure 2.2:Regional precedents for housing growth needed in the Black Country

2.6 The implied need to grow the housing stock of the Black Country by at least 0.7% per annum over the plan period appears still less daunting when acknowledged that the West Midlands needs to grow its housing stock by at least 0.8% per annum over an equivalent period, according to the standard method, and England by 1.1% per annum9.
See attachments for Figure 2.3:Benchmarking the minimum housing need generated by the standard method (2020-39)

2.7 This shows that the outcome of the standard method for the Black Country is not excessively high, rather providing a reasonable benchmark of the minimum need for housing in this area where it would boost the historic rate of delivery – in line with the general aim of the NPPF10 – and allow Wolverhampton, as one of the country’s largest cities, to make its expected contribution towards a nationwide need for housing.

Object

Representation ID: 44780

Received: 11/10/2021

Respondent: Consortium of Developers

Number of people: 4

Agent: Turley Associates

Prospect of a greater need for housing

2.8 There may well be an even greater need for housing in the Black Country than implied by the standard method, when recognised that it provides only ‘a minimum starting point’ and ‘does not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour’, such that ‘there will be circumstances where it is appropriate to consider whether actual housing need is higher than the standard method indicates’11.

2.9 The BCHMA does not appear to even contemplate such a prospect, only estimating – in a relatively crude way12 – the ‘broad economic consequences’13 of meeting the minimum housing need suggested by the standard method without considering whether this would provide sufficient labour to meet economic ambitions, for example. This is contrary to the NPPF, which expects planning policies to ‘create the conditions in which businesses can invest, expand and adapt’ and ‘seek to address potential barriers to investment, such as inadequate infrastructure, services or housing’14. This should be rectified in the next iteration of the Draft BCP, through the commissioning of further evidence.

Comment

Representation ID: 44781

Received: 11/10/2021

Respondent: Consortium of Developers

Number of people: 4

Agent: Turley Associates

Size and type of housing needed

2.10 While this section has focused on the overall number of homes needed in the Black Country, the size and type of housing needed is also an important consideration. The NPPF is clear in stating that the planning system should ensure that ‘a sufficient number and range of homes can be provided to meet the needs of present and future generations’, and therefore requires ‘the size, type and tenure of housing needed for different groups in the community’ to be ‘assessed and reflected in planning policies’15.

2.11 The BCHMA rightly, in this context, seeks to estimate the sizes of homes needed in each tenure. This is summarised at Table 2.2 below, with the addition of totals to aid interpretation.

See attachments for Table 2.2: Size of housing needed by tenure (2020-39)

2.12 While this modelling suggests a need for property of all sizes, it indicates that the greatest need is for larger homes with at least three bedrooms, with this accounting for 54% of the overall need for housing in the Black Country.

2.13 This profile of need has clear implications for the type of housing needed to deliver such a mix, even if this is not explicitly considered by the BCHMA. Houses, rather than flats or bungalows, will undoubtedly be required for instance to meet the need for larger homes with at least three bedrooms, where some 97% of the existing homes of this size in the Black Country are houses16. Indeed, when combining the above with these statistics from the Valuation Office Agency (VOA) – which show the proportion of one bedroom properties in the Black Country that are flats, for example – it can be argued that two thirds (66%) of the overall need for housing in this area relates to
houses, with a much smaller need for flats (27%) and bungalows (6%). The Draft BCP should, therefore, identify a supply of sites capable of delivering such a mix, a point considered further in section 4 of this report.

Comment

Representation ID: 44783

Received: 11/10/2021

Respondent: Consortium of Developers

Number of people: 4

Agent: Turley Associates

3. Consequences of failing to meet need

Planning to reduce the recent rate of housing delivery

3.1 The Draft BCP acknowledges a need for 76,076 homes, equivalent to 4,004 dwellings per annum throughout the plan period, but only identifies sufficient land to provide 47,837 homes or 2,518 dwellings per annum17. It openly admits that this would meet less than two thirds (63%) of the reported housing need, with a presumption – but no guarantee – that neighbouring authorities will accommodate the shortfall18.

3.2 Such an approach, whilst evidently threatening to leave a substantial amount of need unmet, would reverse the progress that has recently been made in boosting housing delivery in the Black Country. Figure 3.1 shows that the proposed requirement for 2,518 dwellings per annum is less than what has been delivered in each of the last six years, the average rate of provision in this period having been boosted by around one third (34%) compared to the six years prior but now apparently at risk of falling by some 12% under the approach proposed by the Draft BCP. This would represent a missed opportunity, as positively planning for a further boosting – of the scale achieved recently (+34%) – would very nearly meet the minimum need suggested by the standard method19.

See attachments for Figure 3.1:Proposed housing requirement relative to recent delivery
Risking the benefits associated with recently increased provision

3.3 The recent boosting of housing supply has brought demonstrable benefits to the Black Country which will be put at risk if delivery is allowed to fall.

3.4 One such benefit relates to the attraction and retention of people within the Black Country. This area has historically tended to lose residents to other parts of the UK without attracting the same number from elsewhere, but Figure 3.2 shows that the average size of this net annual outflow over the past six years (2014-20) has been less than half that recorded previously, over the years for which consistent data is available20 (2001-14).

See attachment for Figure 3.2: Recent change in the average net outflow from the Black Country

3.5 This smaller net outflow of people has helped to restore a trend of growth amongst the working age population (16-64) which had been faltering in the years before21. Having declined throughout the 1990s, this cohort grew in size for ten straight years to 2011 before effectively remaining static for three years, with average annual growth of close to zero (0.04%). The boosting of supply from 2014 onwards, however, has helped to once again grow this key cohort of the population as shown at Figure 3.3 overleaf.
See attachment for Figure 3.3:Annual change in the working age population of the Black Country

3.6 The positive trends outlined above appear extremely unlikely to continue if the rate of housing delivery slows to the rate proposed by the Draft BCP, according to demographic modelling by Edge Analytics which has been commissioned to inform this report. This is intended to illustrate how the provision of 2,518 dwellings per annum from 2020 onwards could, in combination with other demographic factors, affect the size and profile of the Black Country population. Further detail on the methodology is provided at Appendix 1.

3.7 The model suggests that the proposed level of housing provision would be unable to accommodate a net inflow of people from outside of the Black Country, effectively forcing circa 5,525 residents every year to move to other parts of the UK. This is more than three times greater than the net outflow of recent years, shown at the earlier Figure 3.2, and indeed is without recent precedent where it is larger than recorded in any year since at least 2001. This does technically allow for a net inflow of international migrants, albeit one that is smaller than recorded in recent years, but even if this does not materialise and their homes accommodate those otherwise assumed within the model to move elsewhere, the overall net outflow – shown as a dotted grey line at Figure 3.4 below – would remain larger than seen historically.
See attachment for Figure 3.4: Modelled impact of reduced housing provision on net migration

3.8 Population growth would be expected to dramatically slow in this scenario, falling to only 0.1% per annum over the 19-year plan period compared to 0.6% per annum over the equally long historic period (2001-20).

See attachment for Figure 3.5: Modelled impact of reduced housing provision on total population

3.9 The working age population would also be expected to shrink by circa 2% in total – as shown at Figure 3.6 overleaf – while the elderly population, aged 65 and over, could grow by as much as a quarter. This would increasingly and markedly shift the demographic profile of the Black Country towards older age groups.

See attachment for Figure 3.6: Modelled impact of reduced housing provision on selected age groups

Implications for the Black Country economy

3.10 Such limited population growth, combined with a changing age profile, would in turn affect the size of the resident labour force, and its ability to support the creation of new jobs in the Black Country. Edge Analytics’ modelling suggests, based on the assumptions detailed at Appendix 1, that the labour force could support the creation of only 615 jobs per annum over the plan period if housing delivery aligns with the proposed requirement.

3.11 At least one economic forecast, produced by Experian, suggests that the Black Country has the potential to create over three times as many jobs over the same period (2,116pa). The Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP), meanwhile, has previously expressed a target that – although not officially annualised – appears to equate to more than 6,000 jobs per annum if reasonably assumed to cover a period of twenty years22. This is over ten times more jobs than could be supported by the Draft BCP, as shown by Figure
3.7 overleaf.

See attachment for Figure 3.7: Benchmarking job growth annually supported through the proposed approach

3.12 The proposed housing requirement will therefore hamper, rather than support, the recovery and growth of the Black Country economy. This is contrary to one of the overarching aims of the Draft BCP, which explicitly seeks to ‘attract new businesses and jobs’ to the area and:

“…increase employment opportunities to support the delivery of the Black Country and West Midlands Combined Authority Strategic Economic Plans (SEP), the Local Industrial Strategy and Covid-19 recovery plans”23

3.13 It later describes the LEP’s ‘overall aim of transforming the sub-regional economy by creating the conditions for enterprise to flourish, resulting in greater economic prosperity across the Black Country’24. It states that its own ‘challenge’ is to maintain the ‘momentum’ that has recently led to economic growth, particularly in light of the pandemic, suggesting that ‘the Black Country Plan is part of that process’25 in terms of providing employment sites without acknowledging the parallel importance of attracting and retaining labour through making sufficient provision for housing.

3.14 The proposed approach to housing supply does not rise to this ‘challenge’, threatening instead to stall any ‘momentum’ that has developed in recent years. It must therefore be reconsidered, with the aim of further boosting housing supply and retaining the benefits that have recently been generated through increased delivery.

Comment

Representation ID: 44784

Received: 11/10/2021

Respondent: Consortium of Developers

Number of people: 4

Agent: Turley Associates

3. Consequences of failing to meet need

Planning to reduce the recent rate of housing delivery

3.1 The Draft BCP acknowledges a need for 76,076 homes, equivalent to 4,004 dwellings per annum throughout the plan period, but only identifies sufficient land to provide 47,837 homes or 2,518 dwellings per annum17. It openly admits that this would meet less than two thirds (63%) of the reported housing need, with a presumption – but no guarantee – that neighbouring authorities will accommodate the shortfall18.

3.2 Such an approach, whilst evidently threatening to leave a substantial amount of need unmet, would reverse the progress that has recently been made in boosting housing delivery in the Black Country. Figure 3.1 shows that the proposed requirement for 2,518 dwellings per annum is less than what has been delivered in each of the last six years, the average rate of provision in this period having been boosted by around one third (34%) compared to the six years prior but now apparently at risk of falling by some 12% under the approach proposed by the Draft BCP. This would represent a missed opportunity, as positively planning for a further boosting – of the scale achieved recently (+34%) – would very nearly meet the minimum need suggested by the standard method19.

See attachments for Figure 3.1:Proposed housing requirement relative to recent delivery
Risking the benefits associated with recently increased provision

3.3 The recent boosting of housing supply has brought demonstrable benefits to the Black Country which will be put at risk if delivery is allowed to fall.

3.4 One such benefit relates to the attraction and retention of people within the Black Country. This area has historically tended to lose residents to other parts of the UK without attracting the same number from elsewhere, but Figure 3.2 shows that the average size of this net annual outflow over the past six years (2014-20) has been less than half that recorded previously, over the years for which consistent data is available20 (2001-14).

See attachment for Figure 3.2: Recent change in the average net outflow from the Black Country

3.5 This smaller net outflow of people has helped to restore a trend of growth amongst the working age population (16-64) which had been faltering in the years before21. Having declined throughout the 1990s, this cohort grew in size for ten straight years to 2011 before effectively remaining static for three years, with average annual growth of close to zero (0.04%). The boosting of supply from 2014 onwards, however, has helped to once again grow this key cohort of the population as shown at Figure 3.3 overleaf.
See attachment for Figure 3.3:Annual change in the working age population of the Black Country

3.6 The positive trends outlined above appear extremely unlikely to continue if the rate of housing delivery slows to the rate proposed by the Draft BCP, according to demographic modelling by Edge Analytics which has been commissioned to inform this report. This is intended to illustrate how the provision of 2,518 dwellings per annum from 2020 onwards could, in combination with other demographic factors, affect the size and profile of the Black Country population. Further detail on the methodology is provided at Appendix 1.

3.7 The model suggests that the proposed level of housing provision would be unable to accommodate a net inflow of people from outside of the Black Country, effectively forcing circa 5,525 residents every year to move to other parts of the UK. This is more than three times greater than the net outflow of recent years, shown at the earlier Figure 3.2, and indeed is without recent precedent where it is larger than recorded in any year since at least 2001. This does technically allow for a net inflow of international migrants, albeit one that is smaller than recorded in recent years, but even if this does not materialise and their homes accommodate those otherwise assumed within the model to move elsewhere, the overall net outflow – shown as a dotted grey line at Figure 3.4 below – would remain larger than seen historically.
See attachment for Figure 3.4: Modelled impact of reduced housing provision on net migration

3.8 Population growth would be expected to dramatically slow in this scenario, falling to only 0.1% per annum over the 19-year plan period compared to 0.6% per annum over the equally long historic period (2001-20).

See attachment for Figure 3.5: Modelled impact of reduced housing provision on total population

3.9 The working age population would also be expected to shrink by circa 2% in total – as shown at Figure 3.6 overleaf – while the elderly population, aged 65 and over, could grow by as much as a quarter. This would increasingly and markedly shift the demographic profile of the Black Country towards older age groups.

See attachment for Figure 3.6: Modelled impact of reduced housing provision on selected age groups

Implications for the Black Country economy

3.10 Such limited population growth, combined with a changing age profile, would in turn affect the size of the resident labour force, and its ability to support the creation of new jobs in the Black Country. Edge Analytics’ modelling suggests, based on the assumptions detailed at Appendix 1, that the labour force could support the creation of only 615 jobs per annum over the plan period if housing delivery aligns with the proposed requirement.

3.11 At least one economic forecast, produced by Experian, suggests that the Black Country has the potential to create over three times as many jobs over the same period (2,116pa). The Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP), meanwhile, has previously expressed a target that – although not officially annualised – appears to equate to more than 6,000 jobs per annum if reasonably assumed to cover a period of twenty years22. This is over ten times more jobs than could be supported by the Draft BCP, as shown by Figure
3.7 overleaf.

See attachment for Figure 3.7: Benchmarking job growth annually supported through the proposed approach


3.12 The proposed housing requirement will therefore hamper, rather than support, the recovery and growth of the Black Country economy. This is contrary to one of the overarching aims of the Draft BCP, which explicitly seeks to ‘attract new businesses and jobs’ to the area and:

“…increase employment opportunities to support the delivery of the Black Country and West Midlands Combined Authority Strategic Economic Plans (SEP), the Local Industrial Strategy and Covid-19 recovery plans”23

3.13 It later describes the LEP’s ‘overall aim of transforming the sub-regional economy by creating the conditions for enterprise to flourish, resulting in greater economic prosperity across the Black Country’24. It states that its own ‘challenge’ is to maintain the ‘momentum’ that has recently led to economic growth, particularly in light of the pandemic, suggesting that ‘the Black Country Plan is part of that process’25 in terms of providing employment sites without acknowledging the parallel importance of attracting and retaining labour through making sufficient provision for housing.

3.14 The proposed approach to housing supply does not rise to this ‘challenge’, threatening instead to stall any ‘momentum’ that has developed in recent years. It must therefore be reconsidered, with the aim of further boosting housing supply and retaining the benefits that have recently been generated through increased delivery.

Object

Representation ID: 44787

Received: 11/10/2021

Respondent: Consortium of Developers

Number of people: 4

Agent: Turley Associates

4.4 A Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) has been prepared by each authority. It is understood that the SHLAAs are a principal supporting document to justify the Councils’ supply, however there is a disconnection between the amount of supply identified in the SHLAAs and the scheduled number of homes in the BCP. The Draft BCP does not include a trajectory illustrating the expected rate of housing delivery over the plan period (apart from an overall figure for each authority), as required by paragraph 74 of the NPPF. The BCP should therefore be updated to include a trajectory detailing the expected rates of delivery for individual sources of supply, for the benefit of the Inspector and interested parties, to readily allow review and scrutiny of the housing supply in the Plan, which is a fundamental issue and affects soundness.

4.5 Furthermore, given the complexity in this case of the numerous sources of supply, it is considered that the Councils should set out the anticipated rate of development for specific sites, as directed by NPPF paragraph 74.

4.6 The Sites Assessment Report included in the Councils’ evidence base specifically considers some sites’ constraints, capacity and availability, but the connection between these sites, the SHLAA, and to which total source of supply they are intended to contribute is unclear.

Object

Representation ID: 44789

Received: 11/10/2021

Respondent: Consortium of Developers

Number of people: 4

Agent: Turley Associates

4.7 The BCP is stated to be a Local Plan Review. Paragraph 33 of the NPPF states that reviews should take into account changing circumstances affecting the area, or any relevant changes in national policy. The Council refer back to assumptions derived from the Black Country Core Strategy (BCCS) which was adopted in 2011, more than ten years ago, with an evidence base prepared even before that. The policy context was significantly different, especially in relation to housing provision, than is before us now and under which the BCP will be examined.

4.8 The various iterations of the NPPF over the preceding decade have pivoted the emphasis of national policy even further towards significantly boosting the supply of housing, which inevitably requires taking the most robust and realistic approach to what supply is truly deliverable in plan-making.

4.9 On this basis, and with full regard to the Councils stating that the BCP is a ‘Review’, it is concerning that the Councils have attempted to simply roll forward assumptions derived from the BCCS. In the main, these relate to non-implementation discount rates, the deliverability of existing allocations and approach towards some key sources of supply.

Comment

Representation ID: 44790

Received: 11/10/2021

Respondent: Consortium of Developers

Number of people: 4

Agent: Turley Associates

4.10 The Urban Capacity Review (May 2021) explains the utilisation of various assumptions derived from the BCCS in determining the urban capacity of the Black Country. It is concerning to see given the age of the evidence upon which the BCCS assumptions are based. The assumptions taken forward include:
• Existing allocations not being reviewed which are discounted by 10%; and

• A 15% discount rate on proposed allocations on occupied employment land.

4.11 The Councils also apply a 5% discount rate on sites under construction (considered further below) which has been amended from 10% in the BCCS, but this discount rate has been reconsidered in the 2021 Urban Capacity Review document, and adjusted in the BCP supply assumptions.

4.12 It is not appropriate to roll forward these assumptions without due scrutiny of new evidence in this context. The application of realistic discount rates, taking account of the best available evidence since the BCCS, suggests significant changes should be made to the Councils’ claimed deliverable housing supply.

4.13 The Inspector’s report on the BCCS at paragraph 48 stated:

“48. In particular, we are reassured about the likely potential delivery of new housing by the identified current surplus of about 8% of new housing capacity available against the JCS target, having already allowed for a 15% discount on surplus employment land and a 10% discount on other commitments to take into account delivery constraints, such as ground contamination. Both adjustments seem reasonable and appropriate in general terms for a strategic level assessment, particularly as there is no specific evidence available to justify any preferable alternatives. We therefore conclude that this aspect of the JCS is sound.”

4.14 It appears that the BCCS Inspector adopted a set of assumptions in relation to non- implementation rates in a fairly general way, and in the absence of any evidence suggesting any alternative approaches.

4.15 As this report will show, in reality sites have not come forward as predicted by the Councils. As a result, a more cautious approach should therefore be taken in the Draft BCP given the evidence which has come to light in the intervening period, and the changing circumstances in national policy.

Object

Representation ID: 44791

Received: 11/10/2021

Respondent: Consortium of Developers

Number of people: 4

Agent: Turley Associates

The relationship with the need for employment land and reliance on the SHLAA

4.16 The BCP evidence base26 concludes there is a gap (shortfall) of 140.3 ha against the demand requirement for employment sites in the Black Country area. The Councils state this will need to be addressed through ongoing Duty to Co-operate engagement with neighbouring local authorities.

4.17 There are a number of sources of the Councils’ housing land supply which are proposed on existing vacant or occupied employment land. The NPPF states that a sufficient supply of employment sites should be provided as well as housing. The NPPF is also clear at paragraph 81 that planning policies and decisions should help create the conditions in which businesses can invest, expand and adapt. It states that significant weight should be placed on the need to support economic growth and productivity, taking into account both local business needs and wider opportunities for
development. The approach taken should allow each area to build on its strengths, counter any weaknesses and address the challenges of the future.

4.18 In this way, the reliance on occupied employment sites to deliver housing instead directly contradicts the intention of national policy to support economic growth and productivity.

4.19 The NPPF requires there to be a realistic prospect that a site will be available and could be viably developed at the point envisaged. The fact that many sites in the Councils’ trajectory are likely to be in demand for employment land, given the shortfall of 140.3ha identified, increases doubt that they will be developed for housing at the point envisaged.

4.20 The NPPF also states at paragraph 68 that strategic policy-making authorities should have a clear understanding of the land available in their area through the preparation of a strategic housing land availability assessment. From this, planning policies should identify a sufficient supply and mix of sites, taking into account their availability, suitability and likely economic viability.

4.21 Having reviewed the four SHLAAs, which are a key source in determination of the urban capacity in the Black Country, we have concerns with the approach taken, and any plan making decisions based upon them. The SHLAAs state that:

“Only where a site has a realistically implementable permission for an alternative, non- housing use will it be removed from the list of SHLAA sites”

4.22 This does not account for the likely high number of sites which may have potential for alternative, non-housing uses, but that simply do not benefit from an implementable permission. It could be argued that based on the SHLAA conclusions, these sites are as much possible employment sites as they are housing sites.

4.23 If this is the approach taken to understanding the stock of available housing sites, it is vital that reasonable and realistic planning judgement is then applied when relying on their delivery to meet requirements in the plan period.