Draft Black Country Plan

Comment

Representation ID: 21366

Received: 11/10/2021

Respondent: William Davis Homes

Agent: Define Planning and Design Ltd

Housing and Green belt review
SA-0016-DUD (Bromwich Lane)

BLACK COUNTRY CORE STRATEGY REVIEW (THE BLACK COUNTRY PLAN):
BLACK COUNTRY LANDSCAPE SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT & BLACK COUNTRY GREEN BELT STUDY

I write on behalf of my clients William Davis Ltd (WDL) who welcome the preparation of the Black Country Plan (BCP) and support the intention of the Black Country Local Authorities (BCLA) to positively plan for sustainable development and growth in the period to 2038. In light of this, WDL welcomes the publication of the Black Country Green Belt Study (BCGBS) and Black Country Landscape Sensitivity Assessment (BCLSA) that will inform that process, but would like to express some concerns relating to the methodologies of both studies and the conclusions reached as a result; as set out below.



BACKGROUND

The allocation of land for development to address the identified needs within the BCP will be directly informed through the preparation of its evidence base, that includes the BCGBS and BCLSA. That accords with paragraph 31 of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) that states that "the preparation and review of all policies should be underpinned by relevant and up-to-date evidence." Indeed, the reliance of the emerging BCP on releasing land from the Green Belt and allocating it for development emphasises the need for a transparent and robust evidence base that effectively and accurately identifies the most suitable development opportunities. Indeed, the findings of the BCGBS and BCLSA will play a significant part within the identification of development sites during the review of the Core Strategy; albeit they will not be the sole considerations.

Whilst the BCLAs have not invited comments on the evidence base that has been published, key decisions in relation to site allocations will be made on the basis of this evidence, and therefore it is of paramount importance that the BCGBS and BCLSA are robust and consistent in reaching their conclusions, with a transparent account of the evidence-based decision-making process that will inform the identification and allocation of land for housing within this process. In their current iterations, that is simply not the case.

Indeed, WDL are concerned about the methodology that underpins both the BCGBS and BCLSA and, as a consequence, are also concerned about the site-specific findings derived from this that are not accurate or justified in some cases. This is demonstrated by reference to the unsuitable conclusions that the BCGBS and BCLSA have reached in relation to Land at Bromwich Lane, Pedmore (Promoted



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Site 103). You will be aware that this site has been promoted at previous stages of this Core Strategy Review, with a Vision Document (Ref. Pedmore Vision Document FINAL 231018 LR) submitted to the BCLAs that demonstrates the site's suitability, and highlights the specific merit of the site as an appropriate location for future growth. The assessments that underpinned that Vision Document included a specific Green Belt appraisal and a Landscape and Visual appraisal.



BLACK COUNTRY GREEN BELT STUDY: STAGE 1 METHODOLOGY

The BCGBS takes a two-stage approach to assessing the performance of the Green Belt. Within this, the Stage 1 assessment considers the contribution made by individual land parcels to specific Green Belt purposes as outlined by the NPPF. Following this, Stage 2 assesses the potential 'harm' of removing those land parcels from the Green Belt. Meanwhile, the BCLSA represents Stage 3 of this process, and sits alongside the BCGBS.

Stage 1 draws out strategic variations in the contribution of land parcels within the Green Belt to its purposes as defined by the NPPF. In considering this, the BCGBS provides a judgement on a parcel's contribution on a three point scale. This methodology is robust in principle, though its application shows significant inconsistencies that ultimately influence the conclusions derived from it.

Parcel Identification
It is understood that the findings of the BCGBS will be considered alongside other elements of the evidence base to directly inform the BCP's spatial strategy and the allocation of development sites. One would, therefore, expect the identification of assessment parcels to relate to the scale of growth possible at potential allocation sites that have been promoted within the preparation of the BCP.

Parcel Size
Indeed, careful consideration of the extent of the land parcels that are assessed is essential, as a change of parcel size can significantly affect the assessment conclusions. Fundamentally, the parcels need to be appropriately sized to allow their actual role in the Green Belt to be accurately assessed.

Green Belt parcels that are too large, or span geographical thresholds, usually have highly contrasting performance against Green Belt purposes across their extent. For example, a smaller assessment parcel may relate well to the existing urban form and score low on the urban sprawl and coalescence purposes of the Green Belt (purposes 1 and 2 respectively). However, a larger land parcel, within which it sits, may have a totally different relationship and impact. Therefore, the size of a parcel may directly distort the assessment conclusions, and could misinform the spatial strategy.

In light of that, a number of specific concerns have been identified in relation to the land parcels assessed within the BCGBS. In particular, the size of the land parcels assessed in Stage 1 varies significantly between 0.3 hectares and 1,768.3 hectares. The land at Bromwich Lane, Pedmore is a site of 4.2ha yet is assigned to Parcel B60 within this assessment, a parcel of 181.3 hectares in area; one of the larger parcels assessed.

In assessing the contribution of a parcel to the wider purpose of the Green Belt, it would be incorrect to suggest that there is a homogenous contribution across a parcel of this size. Indeed, assessing such a large parcel effectively removes any spatial nuances that exist across its area. Parcel B60 itself comprises of a vastly contrasting parcel of land that varies from urban fringe locations that are influenced largely by the adjacent urban environment, such as at the parcel's north-east, to overwhelmingly open, vast and rural elements of the countryside at the parcel's west.
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This is particularly flawed given that there is no consistent physical, visual or functional relationship between many of the areas that comprise the assessment parcel. In particular, the north-east of the assessment parcel has no visual connectivity, shares very few common landscape features and has an entirely different role and purpose in the function of the wider Green Belt when compared to those more remote areas at the parcel's west.

Rather, there are a number of features within Parcel B60 that mark a clear functional threshold between areas of differing contribution to the Green Belt and landscape character and sensitivity, and would therefore represent more suitable boundaries for the assessment parcels. In particular, the railway line that runs north-to-south through Parcel B60 effectively partitions the Parcel and its role in the Green Belt and wider landscape. Clearly, land west of this is open and visually prominent, rising to a localised ridge towards Racecourse Lane. That is a marked contrast with land east of the line, which is more urbanised, and is clearly visually contained and, therefore, less sensitive in landscape terms. Indeed, the importance of these areas in Green Belt terms differs as a result, with the western extents of the Parcel clearly playing a significant role in avoiding sprawl into the countryside, whilst the east of the parcel, when taken as a whole, limits coalescence.

Indeed, an argument could be made for the sub-division of assessment parcels even below that level. Even in a much reduced area, there are clear differences in the Green Belt contribution east of the railway line. Clearly, sites that are contained by existing development, which would not extend beyond the settlement's current extent, such as promoted sites 50 and 103, contribute much less considerably than parcels in the perceived gap between Pedmore and Hagley.

Rather, if the Stage 1 assessment considered individual promoted sites within a smaller-scale assessment, it would account for the nuances present within the parcel's contribution to the Green Belt, thus producing a more accurate evidence base for the preparation of the BCP. Indeed, as outlined below, that activity may identify that individual sites make a much less significant contribution to the wider purposes of the Green Belt than this study, in its current iteration, would suggest.



BLACK COUNTRY GREEN BELT STUDY:
STAGE 1 ASSESSMENT OF PARCEL CONTRIBUTION TO GREEN BELT

As discussed, the assessment of large, varied Green Belt Parcels can result in study's conclusions effectively being skewed. That is demonstrated below, with reference to Bromwich Lane, Pedmore (promoted site 103), and the conclusions made relating to parcel B60.

Purpose 1: Checking the unrestricted sprawl of large built-up areas
Strong Contribution - Land is adjacent or close to the West Midlands conurbation, contains no significant urban development, and has strong openness. It retains a strong relationship with the wider countryside.

This description is clearly not applicable to the site. Primarily, it is inaccurate to suggest that the Parcel's north-eastern area contains 'no significant urban development, and has strong openness.' Rather, the site is bordered by urban development on two of its three boundaries, with the main urban form of Stourbridge located to the site's immediate north, and infill development along the A491 located to the site's immediate east. This encloses the site, limiting its openness significantly, and contributes to the site's predominant relationship with the urban fringe, as opposed to the countryside.

The site therefore only makes a 'Moderate' Contribution to Purpose 1 as defined by Table 4.2 in the BCGBS as "land adjacent or close to the large built-up area that contains some urban development and/or is to an extent contained by urban development, but retains openness and some relationship with the wider countryside."
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Clearly, the BCGBS' comments are applicable only to land west of Worcester Lane. This land, by virtue of its lack of physical connection with the urban edge, has no significant urban development, is considerably open, and has a strong relationship with the wider countryside. This clearly demonstrates the impact had by defining the site within a large and varied Green Belt parcel.

Purpose 2: Preventing the merging of neighbouring towns
Moderate Contribution - Land lies between the towns of Stourbridge and Kidderminster, a gap which is reduced by urbanizing development at Hagley, West Hagley and Blakedown, but there is sufficient physical and visual separation for each town to retain its own distinct landscape setting.

The development of the site would have a minimal impact in terms of coalescence. Whilst the site forms part of the gap between Pedmore and Hagley, its development would not extend the urban form of Pedmore any further south than the established areas that immediately surround it. Therefore, the physical separation between the settlements, deemed 'sufficient for each town to retain its own distinct landscape setting' by the BCGBS, would remain the same despite the site's development.

Furthermore, whilst the eastern part of the site is visible from the B4187, the western part of the footpath that crosses the fields to the south of the site, and the public rights of way network on higher land to the west of the railway line, the proposed development would actually result in little contrast in existing views. Rather, the new dwellings would sit in front of and below the existing development, would be well screened by the landscape framework, and would appear further away than the existing built form, notably the prominent dwellings at the southernmost extent of Bromwich Lane.

Therefore, the site's contribution to Purpose 2 is moderate. Indeed, the site exhibits aspects of a Moderate contribution, namely it "lies between towns which are near each other, but where there is sufficient physical or visual separation for each town to retain its own distinct setting." However, it also has characteristics of Weak I No Contribution, as it "plays no role, or a very limited role in maintaining the separation between towns due to the presence of significant separating features" such as the existing development surrounding the site.

Purpose 3: Safeguarding the countryside from encroachment
Strong Contribution -- Land contains the characteristics of open countryside (i.e. an absence of built or otherwise urbanizing uses in Green Belt terms) and does not have a stronger relationship with the urban area than with the wider countryside."

This description is clearly not relevant to the site or its surrounds, and instead is more applicable to the west of the parcel. Indeed, two of the site's three boundaries are significantly urbanised by residential development at Stourbridge's southern edge. The site's location and surrounding uses are, therefore, predominantly urban and thus it is untrue that the land has an "absence of built or otherwise urbanising uses." Thus, the site's urban fringe location means that the site shares a closer physical and visual relationship with the urban form, notably having an open boundary to urban development at its east. The site shares just one boundary with the wider countryside, and the relationship between the site and the surrounding countryside is further limited by virtue of the site's robust southern boundary that effectively creates a barrier between the site and the countryside.

Therefore, the assessment that Parcel 60A makes a 'Strong' contribution to Green Belt Purpose 3 is inaccurate in relation to the site. Rather, the site's contribution to this purpose is at the lower end of
'Moderate', as defined by the BCGBS as "land that contains the characteristics of open countryside LJ and which has a stronger relationship with the urban area than with the wider countryside (i.e. it is contained in some way by urbanising and or other features)."
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Again, the BCGBS' conclusion is largely influenced by the western area of the wider parcel. That indeed does make a strong contribution to this purpose, given that it is characteristic of open countryside, is not contained by urbanising features, and thus has a very strong relationship with the wider countryside.

Conclusion
Therefore, the impact that the site's designation within an unsuitable Green Belt assessment parcel
has had on the overall assessment is clear. In undertaking an assessment of the contribution of the site on a more appropriate (site) scale, the following conclusions can be derived:

Green Belt purpose BCGBS assessment of BHL's assessment of
Parcel B60A Bromwich Lane, Pedmore
Purpose 1: Checking Strong contribution (Lower end of) unrestricted sprawl Moderate contribution Purpose 2: Preventing the Moderate contribution (Lower end of) merging of neighbouring towns Moderate contribution Purpose 3: Safeguarding the Strong contribution (Lower end of) countryside from Moderate contribution encroachment
Purpose 4: Preserve the Weak I No contribution Weak I No contribution setting and special character
of historic towns
Purpose 5: Assist urban Strong contribution Strong contribution regeneration



BLACK COUNTRY GREEN BELT STUDY: STAGE 2 METHODOLOGY

The implication of the approach taken is a critical matter throughout the remainder of the BCGBS. The findings of Stage 1 are inextricably linked to the Stage 2 conclusions, with BCGBS paragraph 6.8 stating that "the Stage 1 analysis of variations in contribution to the Green Belt purposes is a key component of the stage 2 assessment." Indeed, step 1 of Stage 2 requires the assessor to consider the contribution ratings of Stage 1 in detail, specifically considering whether any of these purposes are particularly significant. However, the methodology does not suggest that the assessor should take a judgement as to whether the Stage 1 findings are applicable to individual 'scenarios.'

Step 2 then considers the potential impact of the release scenario on the integrity of the remaining Green Belt, and step 3 requires a judgement in relation to the overall harm that the removal of the assessed parcel would have on the Green Belt. This assessment should be on a scale from very high to very low harm, and is a matter of professional judgement that combines considerations from Steps
1 and 2. Clearly, the findings from the Stage 1 assessment, that were clearly invalidated by
inappropriate parcel sizes I configurations, influence this final judgement considerably.

It is not until Step 4 that alternative release 'scenarios' are assessed. That considers "whether the release of a smaller part or parts of the area would result in less harm to Green Belt purposes." Many of these 'scenario' areas relate to promoted sites, effectively considering the harm that their development would cause. This finer grain analysis is supported in principle, as it enables the BCLAs to accurately consider the contribution that a site makes towards the Green Belt, and the harm that its removal would cause, but comes far too late in the process.
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Stage 2 'Alternative Scenarios' Assessment Parcels
Moreover, step 4 only takes that approach to some of the 'promoted sites.' Scenario B60As2 effectively considers the release of the northern parcel of promoted site 114; whilst B60As4 considers the release of promoted site 50. However, to provide a fair assessment of the suitability of each promoted site (to inform a transparent and robustly evidence-based decision-making process), this approach must be taken in relation to all promoted sites, rather than a select few. That is, a similar assessment of the potential harm that would result should promoted site 103 be released is required.

Instead, however, scenario B60As1 assessed the release of Bromwich Lane, Pedmore alongside "any uncontained land within the sub-parcel"; representing a 160.75 hectare 'sub-parcel.' In light of the above comments in relation to the unsuitability of large assessment areas, the conclusions in relation to release scenario B60As1 are clearly misleading when site 103 is specifically considered.

For example, the conclusions would suggest that the site is 'uncontained.' However, it is contained on two of its three boundaries by the existing urban development at the south of Stourbridge, as well as the strong tree-lined boundary at its southern boundary that comprises part of the site's robust landscape framework. Therefore, the site is similarly contained to promoted site 50, which is bordered by Worcester Lane to its east, the railway line to its west and open countryside to its south; a site deemed sufficiently contained to be assessed. Furthermore, the site is much more contained than promoted site 114, as assessed under B60As2, which shares just one boundary with the built environment, with its remaining three boundaries adjoining the open countryside.

Currently, the BCGBS is overlooking more suitable sites, such as the land at Bromwich Lane, Pedmore, by failing to assess the actual harm that their release from the Green Belt would cause and how might accord with paragraph 139 of the NPPF. Consequently, in being informed by this study in its current iteration, the BCP will be inherently unsound as its spatial strategy will have failed to take into account "reasonable alternatives" as required by NPPF paragraph 35. Thus, all promoted sites should be assessed as stand-alone 'release scenarios' to ascertain their suitability for development in Green Belt terms, and to ensure the soundness of the emerging plan.



BLACK COUNTRY GREEN BELT STUDY:
STAGE 2 ASSESSMENT OF HARM FROM RELEASE OF LAND WITHIN SUB-PARCEL

Given that the conclusions of the Stage 1 assessment are demonstrably inaccurate in respect of site
103, and taking into consideration the unsuitable definition of assessment parcel B60A / B60As 1, the study's Stage 2 findings are also not accurate, as demonstrated below.

B60As1 - Release of any uncontained land within the sub-parcel
Very High Harm - The sub-parcel makes a strong contribution to preventing sprawl of the West Midlands conurbation and preventing encroachment on the countryside, and a moderate contribution to maintaining the separation of the neighbouring towns of Stourbridge and Kidderminster (via intervening settlements). The land within the sub-parcel rises up to a ridge, creating a strong sense of separation between the urban edge and the open countryside. Any release of uncontained land in this sub-parcel would weaken the surrounding Green Belt land by containing areas of countryside between the urban edge and the inset settlement of West Hagley.

When considering the site's characteristics and its contribution to the Green Belt, this description is demonstrably inaccurate; rather, this conclusion relates to B60As1's more sensitive western areas. As evidenced above, the site does not make a "strong contribution" either to preventing urban sprawl (Purpose 1) or preventing encroachment on the countryside (Purpose 3) as stated; rather, it would be more accurate to suggest that the site makes a low -- moderate contribution to both purposes.
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Furthermore, whilst the land surrounding the site does rise gently, the land continues to gently rise beyond the site's eastern boundary, before rising more steeply to Wychbury Hill 800m east of site. Thus, the site does not represent the peak of a ridge, and it is therefore inaccurate to suggest that this would create a strong sense of separation between the urban edge and the open countryside. Rather, this element of the judgement relates specifically to the western area of B60As1, with a ridge present at its boundary with Parcel B61. Instead, the opposite is true; the site's development would create a more regular development edge that would represent a more distinct boundary between the settlement and the countryside without physically or visually obtruding into the countryside.

Therefore, the site's development would plainly not "weaken the surrounding Green Belt" and the conclusions made relating to Parcel B60As1 are thus inaccurate in relation the site.

Assessing of harm from release of the site (Bromwich Lane, Pedmore - Promoted Site 103) Therefore, to fairly assess the suitability of all promoted sites, site 103 should be assessed on its own merit. Step 1 requires an in-depth consideration of the Stage 1, an element of which was included in the above analysis. In considering this further, the following conclusions are relevant:

• Purpose 1: Checking unrestricted urban sprawl -- Low - Moderate Contribution; The site is evidently strongly influenced by the adjacent residential development at two of its three boundaries, which limits the site's relationship with the wider countryside. Whilst there is some openness and relationship with the countryside, that too is limited by virtue of the site's robust southern boundary that largely screens inter-visibility between itself and the wider countryside.

• Purpose 2: Preventing the merging of neighbouring towns -- Low - Moderate Contribution; Whilst the site is located in the land that lies between Pedmore and Hagley, the BCGBS finds that there is sufficient physical or visual separation for these towns to retain their own distinct setting. The site's development would not result in a physical extension into that gap beyond the existing development at Bromwich Lane. Furthermore, it would not be visually obtrusive, being seen instead below the existing development, and appearing further away than the properties of Bromwich Lane. Rather, the site's development would result in a stronger, more regular, and more defensible Green Belt boundary than that which exists currently.

• Purpose 3: Safeguarding the countryside from encroachment - Low - Moderate Contribution; due to the site's proximity to urbanising elements, with the existing settlement of Stourbridge adjacent to two of its three boundaries, the site is effectively contained by urbanising features and therefore has a stronger relationship with the urban area than the wider countryside.

• Purpose 4: Preserve the setting and special character of historic towns -- No Contribution.

• Purpose 5: Assist urban regeneration -- Strong Contribution (as per all other assessed sites).

Step 2 requires the assessor to consider the potential impact of the release on the integrity of the remaining Green Belt, recognising that "if Green Belt release significantly weakens the contribution of the adjacent Green Belt to the Green Belt purposes, then the harm is likely to be greater than that identified in Step 1."

However, the site's removal from the Green Belt would actually strengthen the functionality of the adjacent parcel. Indeed, the site's development would provide a well-defined edge between the settlement and the countryside to the south, in a manner that would effectively 'round off' the existing built form whilst not extending further south than the established residential area. Thus, the new Green Belt boundary would be robust and defensible, and would exhibit the features of a strong
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boundary; it would be distinct, would have little variation, and would mark a clear boundary between the urban area and the countryside, with the enhanced southern boundary representing a landscape buffer between the two. That nuance is overlooked by virtue of the size of the assessment parcel.

In assessing the overall Green Belt harm in step 3, the Stage 2 methodology states that the weight prescribed to each of these considerations should not be equal and that professional judgement should be used to reach an overall judgement. However, the methodology provides some guidance, with paragraph 6.23 stating that "where land makes a relatively strong contribution to one of the Green Belt purposes, but where its release would create a simplified, more consistent boundary and would not weaken the adjacent Green Belt, harm is likely to be low - moderate."

Indeed, that summary reflects site 103's potential release, given that it makes a relatively strong contribution to purpose 5 but a less significant contribution to all other purposes, and that its development would strengthen the Green Belt. Clearly, therefore, in order for the BCGBS contribute to the preparation of a fair, robust and transparent evidence base, the assessment should be amended to consider the release of all sites site as a 'scenario.' That would establish that the release of this land for residential development would cause low - moderate harm to the Green Belt.



BLACK COUNTRY LANDSCAPE SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT: METHODOLOGY

The Black Country Landscape Sensitivity Assessment (BCLSA) represents Stage 3 of the BCGBS and seeks to establish the extent to which the character and quality of the landscape abutting the West Midlands conurbation is susceptible to change.

The BCLSA states that the study seeks to carry out this exercise on a broad level, rather than providing a site level assessment as may be required for a planning application. Instead, the assessment considers those areas assessed at Stage 2 of the BCGBS. Thus, the site's landscape sensitivity is appraised in Parcel BL15, a 223.83 hectare area. Therefore, comments made above in relation to assessment area size remain. Indeed, the landscape character and sensitivity of the parcel varies greatly from the more urbanised, contained land at the east of the study area to the open, uncontained, visually prominent countryside at its west. Such variations are not represented in the BCLSA's findings, and must be taken into consideration when considering the merits of each promoted site for development.

The study goes on to consider the landscape sensitivity of a smaller area (20.42ha) that includes the site, under scenario BL 15s2. Within this, the landscape sensitivity of the land east of Worcester Road is considered. Whilst this parcel is significantly smaller, the assessment area is comprised of the site, as well as land to its south. This land represents a considerable visual extension beyond the well• contained site into the open countryside. Therefore, the remainder of this parcel is more sensitive in landscape terms. Thus, the conclusions of the assessment will naturally be weighted in light of this.

Notwithstanding that, the findings from the BCLSA in relation to both parcels (BL 15 and BL 15s2) are analysed below to demonstrate the study's shortcomings in terms of the conclusions drawn.



BLACK COUNTRY LANDSCAPE SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT APPRAISAL OF LANDSCAPE SENSITIVITY

When appraising the parcel's landscape sensitivity, the BCLSA considers the parcel's sensitivity in relation to a number of characteristics. The parcel's size clearly influences the study's findings in relation to the following factors:
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Landscape Pattern and Time Depth
The BCLSA concludes that the parcel has a higher sensitivity to development in relation to landscape pattern and time depth, providing the following justification:

Mix of amalgamated fields and field pattern of straight edged 19" century planned and earlier piecemeal enclosures. There are earthworks and cropmarks south of Racecourse Lane, and the A451 Kidderminster Road which runs along the western boundary is a characteristically straight Roman Road. Much of the south of the area contains geological deposits of glacial sand and gravel and is a potential historic landscape area AHHL V29 Norton Covert and Glacial Sand and Gravel.

This description is not considered to be relevant to the site or its immediate surrounds, which are largely made of smaller fields with a simple structure, with the site itself having no features to suggest that it would have been part of an amalgamation of fields, or that it is a straight edged, planned field, nor a piecemeal enclosure.

Furthermore, the site's distance from the earthworks and cropmarks south of Racecourse Lane, as well the historic Roman A451 road, means that this consideration is not relevant to the site, given the lack of visual connectivity between the site and these features. Indeed, an Archaeological Desk• Based Assessment of the site suggests that there is no designated or recorded heritage assets within the site or in its immediate vicinity. That would suggest that there is no particularly sensitive historic origin present in the site's proximity. Thus, the site has Low Sensitivity to Development in relation to this factor. Rather, the judgement given to Parcel BL 15 is clearly weighted by the increased sensitivity at the parcel's west, with those more valued landscape features spatially concentrated in this area.

'Natural' Character
The BCLSA concludes that parcel BL 15 has moderate sensitivity in relation to its 'natural' character:

Small areas of valued natural habitat including priority habitat deciduous woodland at Outy John Wood (also designated as a SINC), and a small area of priority habitat orchard in the northeast. Valued natural features including mature hedgerow and in-field trees, including oaks which contribute to landscape character.

Again, this conclusion has limited relevance to the site or its immediate surrounds. The area surrounding the site has limited valued natural features. Indeed, whilst the small orchard is located in proximity to the site, it shares no physical, visual or functional connectivity with the site. The site is also located approximately 1km away from the Outy John Wood SING. Furthermore, whilst the site does have a mature hedgerow at its southern boundary, this feature will be retained and enhanced through supplementary planting to ensure the site's visual containment. Finally, the site does not have any in-field trees that contribute to the area's landscape character.

Therefore, considering the criteria as set out in Table 3.1 of the BCLSA, the site is considered to have Low I Moderate Sensitivity to development. Indeed, the site has a "lack of semi-natural habitat coverage or valued natural features" (the criteria for low sensitivity) and whilst it has a robust hedgerow feature, this will be retained and enhanced as part of the scheme proposals.

Built Character
The BCLSA finds that the parcel has some characteristics of both low and medium sensitivity to development in terms of the built character. Regarding the area's medium sensitivity to built development, the assessment notes that:

[The] Settlement is characterised by isolated farmsteads.
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This is not applicable to the site, with the area's isolated farmsteads located at the parcel's west. The assessment notes the following characteristics as contributing to the area's 'lower' sensitivity:

Railway line runs north-south through the area, west of Worcester Lane. Low rise detached brick housing lies to the north-east and north west of the area and influences the adjacent rural landscape mainly due to the busier road network extending from the settlement.

The site and its surrounding area reflect many of the characteristics of this lower sensitivity area. Indeed, its landscape character is largely influenced by the built environment, as discussed throughout. Furthermore, the area's character is influenced by "the busier road network extending from the settlement" with A491 adjacent to the site's eastern boundary, and Worcester Lane located c.250m west of the site. Therefore, the site accords with the BCLSA's definition of Low Sensitivity, notably the "presence or adjacent to modern development or contemporary structures that detract from landscape character, e.g. utility, infrastructure or industrial elements."

Recreational Character
The BCLSA concludes that parcel BL 15 has some characteristics of both 'moderate' and 'higher' sensitivity to development relating to recreational character. In relation to its higher sensitivity to built development, the assessment states that:

The southern boundary is marked by the promoted route Monarch's Way I North
Worcestershire Path.

The inappropriateness of the assessment areas clearly influences these findings. When assessing both BL 15 and BL 15s2, the North Warwickshire Path is a critical consideration, with the footpath offering views into its adjacent land parcels (the southernmost parcels of BL 15s2). However, when assessing the site in its own merit, the site's impact on and relationship with this public path, and therefore the recreational character, is much less significant. Indeed, whilst the site is visible from the Monarch's Way I North Warwickshire Path 800m south-west of the site, the site would be seen within the context of both Pedmore and Hagley. Furthermore, as the user travels east on the path, the site is screened by a belt of vegetation. Therefore, the site plays a limited role in the recreational experience of the North Warwickshire Path, and therefore does not exhibit characteristics of high sensitivity.

In relation to aspects of moderate sensitivity to development in the area, the assessment continues:

Good access via PROWs particularly in the south of the area

The site has no PROWs located within its boundaries, and the site and its immediate surrounds are not known to be areas of particular recreational value. There are two PROWs south of the site; travelling north and south-east from Worcester Lane to join Bromwich Lane and the North Worcestershire Path respectively, as well as one PROW east of the site, travelling south-east from the A491. Therefore, the site would be considered to have a Moderate sensitivity to development in respect to its recreational character, as there are "some public rights of way and footpaths."

Perceptual Aspects
The BCLSA concludes that Parcel BL 15 has some characteristics of moderate and high sensitivity to built development. It states that the following characteristics are representative of high sensitivity:

A strongly rural landscape which reads as part of the wider landscape, as the surrounding residential development is largely set back from the area.
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These characteristics do not apply to the site, which is considerably influenced by the adjoining built environment. Consequently, the character of the site is that of the urban fringe, and thus is not considered to be "strongly rural" as above.

The BCLSA states that the following characteristics result in a medium sensitivity:

Tranquility is disturbed locally by the A491, 84187 Worcester Lane and A451 Kidderminster Road in the west, and the experience of dark skies increases to the south west. The railway line is within a cutting and does not impact on the character of the landscape.

This description is clearly more appropriate to the site. The tranquility of the site is disturbed by virtue of the A491 that runs adjacent to the dwellings at the site's eastern boundary. Furthermore, the presence of established residential uses in proximity to the site detracts from the experience of dark skies and the area's overall tranquility. Therefore, the site is perhaps the least sensitive area within Parcels BL 15 and BL 15s2, and therefore its perceptual aspects are at the low end of Moderate in terms of their sensitivity to built development.

Settlement Setting
The BCLSA concludes that Parcel BL 15 has some characteristics that would result in both a moderate and high sensitivity to built development. It states that the following aspects of the parcel result in a higher sensitivity:

Despite ribbon development along the A491, the east of the area plays an important role in the perception of a gap between Stourbridge and West Hagley.

Again, this conclusion emphasises the importance of assessing landscape sensitivity on a site-by-site basis. Whilst the site is located at the parcel's east, and developing the entirety of BL 15s2 would reduce the perception of a gap between Stourbridge and West Hagley, the site itself makes a limited contribution to the perception of this gap. Indeed, that has been discussed in detail in relation to the findings from the BCGBS above. In summary, the development of the site would not reduce the physical gap between Stourbridge and Hagley, given that the existing dwellings of Bromwich Lane extend further south than the site. Furthermore, the proposed development would be seen in the context of, and below, the existing development, and would not appear to be as obtrusive as those dwellings fronting Bromwich Lane. In any event, it is considered that coalescence should not be considered within this study, given that this has been considered as part of the BCGBS.

The BCLSA outlines the following characteristics of medium sensitivity to built development:

Provides some contribution as a rural backdrop to Stourbridge. Woodland belts along the settlement edge or woodland within the Stourbridge Golf Club provides a boundary feature along the urban edge.

This description is not relevant to the site. Rather, as discussed above, the development of the site represents an opportunity to create a more defensible and robust settlement boundary. Thus, following the site's development, the settlement boundary would comprise of an enhanced robust tree-lined boundary, with the land to the north of this residential in nature, and the land to the south representing the area of separation between Pedmore and Hagley. Thus, the site has low sensitivity, given that it "does not provide an attractive backdrop to adjacent settlement or play a separation role" and that the "development could provide the opportunity to improve an existing settlement edge."
DEFINE



Visual Prominence
The BCLSA concludes that the parcel has some characteristics that would result in a low sensitivity to built development, and others that would result in a high sensitivity. It outlines the following characteristics that contribute to that higher sensitivity:

An open rolling landscape with areas at higher elevation, often with ridge-top woodlands, visually prominent.

This conclusion is not applicable to the site. Indeed, the site is not open given the enclosure afforded to it by the adjacent residential uses, it does not have ridge-top woodlands, and it is not visually prominent. Rather, the existing built form is often more visually prominent than the development on site would be, by virtue of the site's robust landscape framework and the enhanced supplementary planting. Evidently, this conclusion is more suitable for the west of Parcel BL 15.

The characteristics of the areas of the parcel that are of low sensitivity are as follows:

Semi-enclosed by roadside vegetation

That description is more accurate for the site. The site's north-western boundary is marked by the roadside vegetation adjacent to Bromwich Lane, which contributes significantly to its enclosure. Furthermore, whilst not road-side vegetation, the vegetation at the site's southern boundary encloses the site further. Therefore, the site has low sensitivity to built development in terms of its visual prominence. However, it is noted that any assessment of the site as part of Parcel BL 15s2 would result in a far increased sensitivity, given that the land to the south of the site is less enclosed, and represents more open and visually prominent land.

Inter-visibility with Adjacent Designated Landscapes or Promoted Viewpoints
The BCLSA states that the following characteristics contribute to the parcel's medium sensitivity in
relation to its inter-visibility with adjacent designated landscapes or promoted viewpoints:

Some inter-visibility with Wychbury Hill and obelisk within Hagley Hall Registered Park and
Garden from Worcester Lane and with the promoted viewpoint at Clent Hills to the south east.

Whilst there are views of the western extent of Bromwich Lane from Wychbury Hill, the site itself is hidden by development along the A491 and intervening vegetation. Thus, whilst the rooftops of the proposed development may be visible amongst tree canopies, they would be seen in the context of the existing development. Similarly, the site would form only a small part of panoramic views from the Clent Hills, and would largely be screened by surrounding development and vegetation. Again, the rooftops of the development may be visible amongst tree canopies, but this would be seen in the context of the existing development. Therefore, the site has low sensitivity to built development, with the site according with the BCLSA's description of low sensitivity; "little inter-visibility with adjacent sensitive landscapes or marked viewpoints.

Again, the site's consideration alongside the land to its south as part of Parcel BL 15s2 is detrimental to the conclusions in this regard. Indeed, the land to the south of Parcel BL 15s2, in particular, would have a much more significant visual relationship with Wychbury Hill, given the lack of vegetation and intervening development that would otherwise screen views.

Conclusions and Implications
Thus, it has been demonstrated that the site frequently represents the least sensitive location within both Parcels BL 15 and BL 15s2 in terms of its landscape sensitivity. Therefore, the conclusion that Parcel BL 15s2 has a Moderate - High landscape sensitivity is not appropriate for site 103 specifically.
DEFINE



Moreover, it also concludes that "the narrow stretch of open landscape between Stourbridge and West Hagley has a moderate-high sensitivity due to its additional role in providing a perceived gap between the settlement." The above analysis has demonstrated this to be inaccurate in relation to site
103 itself, given that its development would not reduce the gap physically, and that the development
would appear further away than those existing dwellings on Bromwich Lane. Rather, the site's development would sensitively 'round-off' the built form, providing a robust and defensible boundary to the settlement.

Therefore, a judgement must be made regarding the site's landscape sensitivity when considered alone. Indeed, given the above analysis, and taking into consideration the characteristics of landscape sensitivity of Parcel BL 15 as a whole, the following conclusions are derived:

Landscape Sensitivity BCLSA assessment of BHL's assessment of characteristic / attribute Area BL15 Bromwich Lane,
Pedmore
Scale Moderate sensitivity Moderate sensitivity Landform Moderate sensitivity Moderate sensitivity Landscape pattern and Higher sensitivity Lower sensitivity time depth
Natural character Moderate sensitivity Low / Moderate sensitivity
Built character Low / Moderate Low sensitivity sensitivity
Recreational character Moderate I Higher Moderate sensitivity sensitivity
Perceptual aspects Moderate I Higher Low / Moderate sensitivity sensitivity
Settlement setting Moderate I Higher Low sensitivity sensitivity
Visual prominence Low / Higher sensitivity Low sensitivity
Inter-visibility with adjacent Moderate sensitivity Moderate sensitivity designated landscapes or
promoted view points

Indeed, it can be demonstrated that the site is not highly sensitive to development in regard to any of these factors. Furthermore, whilst the BCLSA's methodology outlines that each factor should not automatically be afforded equal weight, there are no factors that would cause significant harm to the landscape character, and no outstanding issues that must be considered when reaching an overall judgement. Therefore, the site has overall Low - Moderate sensitivity to built development.

The inaccuracy of the BCLSA's findings extends beyond the site itself. It concludes that the west of BL 15 (BL 15s1) is less sensitive than the eastern area, with BL 15s1 given a moderate sensitivity. That conclusion is somewhat confusing, not least as the justification for this states that "the rural character is disrupted by the presence of busy trunk roads on the boundaries of the area." However, as outlined above the more sensitive elements of the Parcel BL 15 relate to the western areas of the parcel, in particular those areas that have little relationship with the built form and are visually prominent.



CONCLUSIONS

As discussed above, the preparation of a robust, accurate and transparent evidence base is critical within plan-making and is required by NPPF paragraph 31. Indeed, the policies within Local Plans, including land allocation policies, must demonstrate that they have been informed by this evidence
DEFINE



base. In assessing the merits of each promoted site within this process, therefore, it is critical that the evidence utilised is accurate.

Clearly, however, the conclusions of the BCGBS and BCLSA are inconsistent and greatly influenced by a poor methodology that incorrectly utilises large assessment areas. Thus, those findings are not reliable in relation to specific sites and, as a consequence, will misinform key judgements made in relation to the spatial strategy and allocation of specific development sites. In that event, the Black Country Plan would not be 'sound', as required by NPPF paragraph 35, as the strategy would not have fully taken into account reasonable alternatives, and will not have been based on robust and proportionate evidence base.

The failure of these assessments has been highlighted by referring to the findings in relation to WDL's site at Bromwich Lane, Pedmore. Indeed, the conclusions made with relation to the site are clearly erroneous, by virtue of the assessments' unsuitable methodologies; specifically, the identification of unsuitably large, varying land parcels. That resulted in the area relating to the site being considered to have a moderate -high sensitivity to development in landscape terms (BL 15s2), and make a sufficient contribution to the Green Belt that its release would cause Very High harm to it. However, when considering the site on its own merit, it has been demonstrated that the site has low -- moderate sensitivity to built development in terms of its landscape setting, and that the site's release from the Green Belt would have low -- moderate harm to the Green Belt.

The implications of the failings of these assessments is considerable, as it results in entirely appropriate sites such as Bromwich Lane, Pedmore, that would make an important contribution to a sustainable spatial strategy, being overlooked. Therefore, in order to fulfill the BCLA's duty to prepare a transparent and evidence-based BCP, these assessments must be revisited to address the concerns set out above, before critical decisions are taken.

I trust that these comments are clear and will be given due consideration moving forward. If, however, there are any queries arising from them I would of course be more than happy to address those.

Yours faithfully








Mark Rose
Director


Executive summary


1. Turley has been commissioned by a consortium of six developers to critically review the approach to housing provision that is proposed in the Draft Black Country Plan ('the Draft BCP') which is currently out for consultation until 11 October 2021.

2. The Draft BCP acknowledges an overall need for 76,076 homes throughout the Black Country over the plan period (2020-39). This equates to an average of 4,004 dwellings per annum, aligning closely but not exactly with the minimum need currently and indeed recently suggested by the standard method. While this suggests a need for more homes than have been delivered in any year since at least 2006, it is actually a relatively small number compared to the size of the existing housing stock {601,464 dwellings as at 2020) and would only require growth at the rate since achieved by the West Midlands as a whole (0.7% per annum), which was bettered by almost half of its thirty authorities in that time. The outcome of the standard method for the Black Country therefore should not be viewed as excessively high, but instead a reasonable benchmark of the minimum need for housing in this area where it would boost the historic rate of delivery and allow Wolverhampton, as one of the country's largest cities, to contribute towards meeting a nationwide need for housing. Indeed, there may well be an even greater need for housing where the standard method makes no attempt to predict the impact of changing economic circumstances, for example, and the Councils' evidence base provides no assurance that there will be sufficient labour to meet the economic growth ambitions of this area.

3. The Draft BCP intends to make provision for only 47,878 homes over the plan period, equivalent to 2,518 dwellings per annum, leaving a shortfall of circa 28,198 homes with an assumption - but no guarantee - that this will be met in neighbouring areas.
This represents a level of provision that has been exceeded in each of the last six years, with roughly a third (34%) more homes having been delivered than in the six years
prior and the Black Country seeing tangible benefits as a result, the area more effectively attracting and retaining people than it has historically for example and therefore once again growing its working age population.

4. Rather than planning positively for a similar boosting that would very nearly meet the minimum need for housing suggested by the standard method, the Draft BCP instead threatens to reduce the recent rate of delivery by 12%. Demographic modelling suggests that this would dramatically slow the recent rate of population growth and effectively force around 5,500 residents to move elsewhere every year, over three times more than in recent years. The associated reduction in the size of the working age population, combined with potential behavioural changes, would be expected to leave a labour force capable of supporting only 615 new jobs every year, whereas at
least one economic forecast suggests that the Black Country has the potential to create
over three times as many jobs and indeed the LEP has previously expressed a target that appears to be over ten times greater.

5. This assumes that the proposed requirement can be met through the supply identified in the Draft BCP, which may not be the case based on the analysis in this report. The NPPF requires Local Plans to be aspirational but deliverable, identifying a sufficient




1

supply of sites taking into account their availability, suitability and likely economic viability. Those sites should meet the tests of deliverable and developable co ntained in the NPPF glossary. This report assesses the Councils' claimed deliverable supply against the NPPF guidance and concludes that 9,571 less homes are realistically deliverable or developable in the plan period. This has a significant impact where it means that, without modification to other parts of the Draft BCP, the shortfall increases to 37,810 homes, circa 50% of the minimum need for housing.

6. This report has assessed the Councils' proposed sources of supply, and identified significant concerns with the assumptions being relied on, with a clear absence of any up-to-date and robust evidence. In some areas the Council assumptions are not rigorous enough, the evidence base is inadequate to draw out the conclusions being relied on, and in our opinion the justification provided falls short given the context and scale of the implications of misjudging the true amount of housing supply. Significant planning harm may arise though providing insufficient housing and the needs being unmet by this (or any other) Plan.

7. Despite a context of difficulty delivering housing on occupied employment land, and with existing housing allocations with have not been delivered, the Councils seek to simply roll forward the approach taken in those respects, with little scrutiny or regard to the effectiveness (or not) of that strategy. Through reductions to commitments (-
695 homes), existing allocations (-4,973 homes), occupied employment land (-3,091 homes) and upper floor conversions in Wolverhampton (-812 homes), this report concludes that there is, realistically, a far lower amount of housing (almost 10,000 homes less) that can be provided in the Black Country than purported by the Councils and must be deducted from the supply.

8. Given the large gap between supply and need, compounded by previously over optimistic assumptions on what can be delivered, the Councils' sources must be scrutinised further as the BCP advances, and the implications of the possible additional housing supply shortfalls considered closely.

9. This report follows on from Turley's 'Falling Short - Taking stock of unmet needs across the Greater Birmingham and Black Country Housing Market Area' published in August
2021. That report identifies a housing shortfall across the Greater Birmingham and Black Country Housing Market Area (GBBCHMA) of between circa 18,700 and 42,000 dwellings up to 2031, and between 68,700 and 78,000 homes up to 2040. This includes the Black Country shortfall as currently reported in the Draft BCP. Any reduction to the Councils' proposed supply would only exacerbate and worsen the wider GBBCHMA shortfall up to 2031 and 2040.

















2

1. Introduction


1.1 The Black Country authorities are currently undertaking a Regulation 18 consultation on the Draft Black Country Plan1 ('the Draft BCP') which runs until 11 October 2021.

1.2 Turley has been commissioned by a consortium of six developers2 to critically review the proposed approach to housing provision, where the Draft BCP acknowledges an overall need for 4,004 dwellings per annum over the plan period (2020-39) - or 76,076 homes in total - but intends to make provision through Policy HOU1 for only 2,518 homes each year, or 47,837 homes in total.

1.3 The report is structured to consider:

• The overall need for housing in the Black Country, in section 2, reviewing the outcome and limitations of the standard method;

• The consequences of the approach proposed in the Draft BCP, in section 3, where it would slow the recent rate of housing delivery and appears likely to undermine ambitions for economic growth based on demographic modelling that has been commissioned to inform this study;

• The composition of the proposed housing supply, in section 4, and the underlying evidence base; and

• The elements of the proposed supply that are less reliable and should arguably be removed, in section 5, such that supply would fall even further short of need and the aforementioned consequences would be even more pronounced.

1.4 The concluding section 6 draws together the analysis and establishes the implications for the Draft BCP.























1 Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council, Sandwell Metropolitan Borough Council, Walsall Council and the City of
Wolverhampton Council (July 2021) Draft Black Country Plan
2 Barratt Homes Limited; HIMOR; IM Land; Richborough Estates; Taylor Wimpey Strategic Land; and William Davis




3

2. Housing need in the Black Country


Establishing the minimum local need

2.1 The Draft BCP refers to 'a local housing need for 76,076 homes', equivalent to 4,004 dwellings per annum on average over the plan period3 (2020-39).

2.2 While not specified, this is assumed to have been calculated using the 'standard method' for determining 'the minimum number of homes needed', as is required in all but 'exceptional circumstances' according to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF). It is of note, however, that the quoted figure does not align with the need for
4,019 dwellings per annum calculated, with a 2020 base date, in the recently published
Black Country Housing Market Assessment5 (BCHMA). It likewise does not align with the current outcome of the formula, when rebasing to 2021 and accounting for the new affordability ratios released in March, nor the higher figures briefly generated earlier this year prior to the release of the latter. While Table 2.1 shows that the difference is relatively modest, it is considered that this should be rectified for clarity within the next iteration of the Draft BCP.

Table 2.1: Current and recent outcomes of the standard method


Outcome of the standard method when applied in

December 2020 January 2021 March 2021

Dudley 636 640 635

Sandwell 1,488 1,487 1,466

Walsall 882 879 869

Wolverhampton 1,013 1,020 1,041

Black Country 4,019 4,026 4,011

Total over plan period 76,361 76,494 76,206

Relative to BCP (76,076) +285 +418 +130

Source: Turley analysis Aligns with BCHMA

2.3 There are three elements to the minimum need for housing currently generated for the
Black Country authorities by the standard method, as shown by Figure 2.1 overleaf. The demographic baseline of the 2014-based household projections is adjusted by 10•
14%, or 11% in aggregate, to formulaically account for the current relationship
between house prices and earnings in each area. While none of the four authorities are affected by the cap linked to existing requirements, Wolverhampton does
subsequently receive a further 35% uplift, reflecting its status as one of England's


3 Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council, Sandwell Metropolitan Borough Council, Walsall Council and the City of
Wolverhampton Council (July 2021) Draft Black Country Plan, paragraph 3.20
4 MHCLG (July 2021) National Planning Policy Framework, paragraph 61
5 HDH Planning and Development (March 2021) The Black Country Housing Market Assessment




4

twenty most populated cities and urban centres which are all required to apply such an uplift in order to 'increase home-building in existing urban areas' and make a greater contribution towards meeting the Government's aim of delivering 300,000 homes
every year6•

Figure 2.1:


1,600

1,400

_ 1,200
£
Components of the standard method for the Black Country


1,466




1,041
c 1,000
c..U..
0
0 800
u
00
c
0 600
3
o




635





1,335

869
400

200

557
793

699

0
Dudley Sandwell Walsall Wolverhampton

■ Baseline ■ Affordability adjustment ■ Cities and urban centres uplift


Source: Turley analysis


Setting the minimum need in context

2.4 The resultant combined need for at least 4,011 dwellings per annum, like the slightly lower figure of 4,004 dwellings per annum referenced in the Draft BCP, initially appears significant and potentially challenging to meet where the authorities have jointly
delivered no more than 3,129 homes in any year since 20067

2.5 It appears markedly less so when considered in context, however. Both figures suggest a need to grow the existing housing stock of the Black Country by an average of 0.7% during each year of the plan period, which is not unrealistic or necessarily
unattainable where the West Midlands as a whole has successfully grown its stock at this exact rate on average since 2006. Almost half of its thirty authorities have performed even better, as shown at Figure 2.2 overleaf.







6 MHCLG (December 2020) Government response to the local housing need proposals in "Changes to the current planning system"
7 Based on completions consistently reported by each authority over the period from 2006 to 2020 in Statements of
Housing Supply, Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessments and Housing Delivery Test Action Plans
8 MHCLG (2020) Table 125: dwelling stock estimates by local authority district



5

Figure 2.2:

Regional precedents for housing growth needed in the Black Country


1.4%
6
$31%
0
& 1.0%
c
0.8%




0.7%
IIIiiii
0
5o 0.6%
u
9 0.4%
u
$9 0.2%
'-
z0 0.0%









- Black Country authorities - Others in the West Midlands

• • • • • • West Midlands average


Source: MHCLG; Turley analysis


2.6 The implied need to grow the housing stock of the Black Country by at least 0. 7% per annum over the plan period appears still less daunting when acknowledged that the West Midlands needs to grow its housing stock by at least 0.8% per annum over an equivalent period, according to the standard method, and England by 1.1% per annum9•


























9 Based on the outcome of the standard method as of August 2021, estimated for every local authority by Turley and aggregated to the West Midlands (21,829dpa) and England (297,619dpa)



6

Figure 2.3: Benchmarking the minimum housing need generated by the standard method (2020-39)




England {297,619dpa)





West Midlands {21,829dpa)





Black Country (4,0lldpa)






0.8%




0.7%
1.1%



0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2%
Housing growth needed per annum (2020-39)



Source: MHCLG; Turley analysis

2.7 This shows that the outcome of the standard method for the Black Country is not excessively high, rather providing a reasonable benchmark of the minimum need for housing in this area where it would boost the historic rate of delivery - in line with the general aim of the NPpE! - and allow Wolverhampton, as one of the country's largest cities, to make its expected contribution towards a nationwide need for housing.

Prospect of a greater need for housing

2.8 There may well be an even greater need for housing in the Black Country than implied by the standard method, when recognised that it provides only 'a minimum starting point' and 'does not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or otherfactors might have on demographic behaviour', such that 'there will be circumstances where it is appropriate to consider whether actual housing need is higher than the standard method indicates'.

2.9 The BCHMA does not appear to even contemplate such a prospect, only estimating -- in a relatively crude way' - the 'broad economic consequences' of meeting the
minimum housing need suggested by the standard method without considering
whether this would provide sufficient labour to meet economic ambitions, for example. This is contrary to the NPPF, which expects planning policies to 'create the


1MHLG (2021) National Planning Policy Framework, paragraph 60
11 ppG Reference ID 2a-010-20201216
? The BCHMA uses "job density" (a measure of jobs per working age person) to estimate the number of jobs in the Black Country at the end of the plan period, drawing on a population projection that is intended to align with the standard method. This is considered to be relatively crude where similar studies tend to draw upon demographic models that allow for future changes in economic participation and unemployment rates, and make transparent assumptions on commuting and so-called "double jobbing"
13 HDH Planning and Development (March 2021) The Black Country Housing Market Assessment, p71



7

conditions in which businesses can invest, expand and adapt' and 'seek to address potential barriers to investment, such as inadequate infrastructure, services or housing'14• This should be rectified in the next iteration of the Draft BCP, through the commissioning of further evidence.

Summary

2.10 The Draft BCP acknowledges a need for 4,004 dwellings per annum over the plan period. This appears to have been based on the standard method but notably falls slightly below its current and recent outcomes, so must be clarified in the next draft.

2.11 While this may initially appear a substantial need that will be challenging to meet • where the authorities have jointly delivered no more than 3,129 homes in any year since 2006 - it is certainly not unrealistic or unattainable when recognised that it would only need the housing stock to grow at the average rate since achieved by the West Midlands as a whole, which indeed was bettered by almost half of its thirty authorities (none of which were in the underperforming Black Country). The outcome of the method, as a proportion of the existing housing stock, is also smaller than seen regionally or nationally.

2.12 This shows that the outcome of the standard method for the Black Country is not excessively high, but instead a reasonable benchmark of the minimum need for housing in this area where it would boost the historic rate of delivery- in line with the general aim of the NPPF - and allow Wolverhampton, as one of the country's largest cities, to contribute towards meeting a nationwide need for housing.

2.13 There may well be an even greater need for housing, where the standard method makes no attempt to predict the impact of changing economic circumstances for example and the Government accepts that it will often be appropriate to consider whether there is a greater need for housing. The BCHMA does not appear to even contemplate such a prospect, such that there may be insufficient labour to meet economic growth ambitions in conflict with the NPPF. This must be rectified and properly considered through the commissioning of further evidence.






















MHLG (July 2021) National Planning Policy Framework, paragraphs 81 and 82c



8

3. Consequences of failing to meet need


Planning to reduce the recent rate of housing delivery


3.1 The Draft BCP acknowledges a need for 76,076 homes, equivalent to 4,004 dwellings per annum throughout the plan period, but only identifies sufficient land to provide
47,837 homes or 2,518 dwellings per annum15. It openly admits that this would meet
less than two thirds (63%) of the reported housing need, with a presumption - but no guarantee - that neighbouring authorities will accommodate the shortfall.

3.2 Such an approach, whilst evidently threatening to leave a substantial amount of need unmet, would reverse the progress that has recently been made in boosting housing delivery in the Black Country. Figure 3.1 shows that the proposed requirement for
2,518 dwellings per annum is less than what has been delivered in each of the last six
years, the average rate of provision in this period having been boosted by around one third (34%) compared to the six years prior but now apparently at risk of falling by some 12% under the approach proposed by the Draft BCP. This would represent a
missed opportunity, as positively planning for a further boosting - of the scale achieved recently (+34%) -- would very nearly meet the minimum need suggested by the
standard method17.

Figure 3.1: Proposed housing requirement relative to recent delivery


3,500
e_ 3.000



««d««d««d«««««««««««««««««««««

2,863
E 2,500
cU
% 2,000
0
'&% 1,500
c
6 1,000
3
o 500

0
..............................................n.....

¢«««¢«@

2,142










- Average over past six years (2014-20)

- Average over previous six years (2008-14)

• • • • • • Proposed requirement (2,518dpa)


Source: Councils' monitoring; Turley analysis



15 Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council, Sandwell Metropolitan Borough Council, Walsall Council and the City of
Wolverhampton Council (July 2021) Draft Black Country Plan, paragraph 6.4
1° 1bid, p31
Boosting the rate of provision achieved over the past six years by 34% would result in circa 3,827 dwellings per annum being provided throughout the Black Country, equivalent to almost 96% of the annual need referenced in
the Draft BCP



9

Risking the benefits associated with recently increased provision

3.3 The recent boosting of housing supply has brought demonstrable benefits to the Black Country which will be put at risk if delivery is allowed to fall. The area has historically tended to lose residents to other parts of the UK without attracting the same number from elsewhere, for example, but Figure 3.2 shows that the average size of this net annual outflow over the past six years (2014-20) has been less than half that recorded previously, over the years for which consistent data is available" (2001-14).

Figure 3.2: Recent change in the average net outflow from the Black Country

- s ~ do a o a A R R G a
9cN 9c
et u t I
g g
0O O O + cv 0 et u to I 00 O O
p s • st • s • s N



-4
2
2.....
•0


0


-1,000
O O O O O O O O O + + eH et et t H eH et el
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
N (N (N (N (N (N ( (N (N (N (N (N (N N (N (N (N cy
... J 4 ... J.......1. .....1IIIII
E -2,000
cU
....

-1,660
.....
0
.0....
3,000 ~
-
2 -4,000
0
..;.:.:.:.
-3,441
.o....
z
-5,000


-6,000

-Average with boosted supply (2014-20)





- Average previously (2001-14)


Source: ONS; Turley analysis

3.4 This smaller net outflow of people has helped to restore a trend of growth amongst the
working age population (16-64) which had been faltering in the years before19
Having
declined throughout the 1990s, this cohort grew in size for ten straight years to 2011 before effectively remaining static for three years, with average annual growth of close to zero (0.04%). The boosting of supply from 2014 onwards, however, has helped to once again grow this key cohort of the population as shown at Figure 3.3 overleaf.















1 0NS (2021) Mid-year population estimates, 2001 to 2020
19 1bid




10

Figure 3.3: Annual change in the working age population of the Black Country


1.0%
~
o 0.8%
d
-4
c 0.6%
0
;
cU
5 0.4%
0
0
0


I I I




Illl
0.2%
00
cU
29 0.0%
5....
0 0.2%
c
%-0.4%
c
cU
. I
[I[I"
5_ 0.6%
cU
£ -0.8%
<
-1.0%

cv en «t u I 0 O O l cN 0 «t u t I 0 O O l cN 0 et u t I 00 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O cl l et «I t t t « «t cu
t cu en «t u t I 00 O O t cN 0 «t u t I 00 O O el cN 0 «t u t I 00 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O I et «I t t t « «t t
0 O 0 0 O o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
4 el cl t e4 el el el e eN ty e e eN e t (v eN ty N (N (N N N ey ey (N eN (y


Source: ONS; Turley analysis

3.5 The positive trends outlined above appear extremely unlikely to continue if the rate of housing delivery slows to the rate proposed by the Draft BCP, according to demographic modelling by Edge Analytics which has been commissioned to inform this report. This is intended to illustrate how the provision of only 2,518 dwellings per annum from 2020 onwards could, in combination with other demographic factors, affect the size and profile of the Black Country population. Further detail on the methodology is provided at Appendix 1.

3.6 The model suggests that such a level of housing provision would be unable to accommodate a net inflow of people from outside of the Black Country, effectively forcing circa 5,525 residents every year to move to other parts of the UK. This is more than three times greater than the net outflow of recent years, shown at the earlier Figure 3.2, and indeed is without recent precedent where it is larger than recorded in any year since at least 2001. This does technically allow for a net inflow of international migrants, albeit one that is smaller than recorded in recent years, but even if this does not materialise and their homes accommodate those otherwise assumed within the model to move elsewhere, the overall net outflow- shown as a dotted grey line at Figure 3.4 below - would remain larger than seen historically.














11

Figure 3.4:


+10,000
+8,000 c +6,000
0
;
.° +4,000
0
0 +2,000
c

Modelled impact of reduced housing provision on net migration



MODELLING


+3,803 per annum
on average



+2,526
.u.... 0 ..

0
&t -2,000
.0....
", ,···,,.·.···,,,,@
·"·,·"··

z -4,000

-6,000

-8,000
1,724)



- Natural change (births minus deaths) - Net internal migration (within UK)

- Net international migration • • • • • • Net migration (combined)


Source: Edge Analytics; Turley analysis

3.7 Population growth would be expected to dramatically slow in this scenario, falling to only 0.1% per annum over the 19-year plan period compared to 0.6% per annum over the equally long historic period (2001-20).

Figure 3.5: Modelled impact of reduced housing provision on total population


1,250,000




c
0
;
.°
0
0
0
.c..U..
0
f-
1,200,000


1,150,000



1,100,000









1,080,995


in 2020
+0.6% per annum since 2001
1,217,772
in 2039
+0.1% per annum since 2020
1,050,000 in 2001



1,000,000



Source: Edge Analytics; Turley analysis

3.8 The working age population would also be expected to shrink by circa 2% in total - as shown at Figure 3.6 overleaf- while the elderly population, aged 65 and over, could





12

grow by as much as a quarter. This would increasingly and markedly shift the demographic profile of the Black Country towards older age groups.

Figure 3.6: Modelled impact of reduced housing provision on selected age groups


1.30

1.25

1.20
6
115
(N

+25%
! 1.10
X
$ 1.05
c
1.00

0.95

0.90
-2%



-Total population Working age population (16-64) Older population (65+)


Source: Edge Analytics; Turley analysis


Implications for the Black Country economy

3.9 Such limited population growth, combined with a changing age profile, would in turn affect the size of the resident labour force, and its ability to support the creation of new jobs in the Black Country. Edge Analytics' modelling suggests, based on the assumptions detailed at Appendix 1, that the labour force could support the creation of only 615 jobs per annum over the plan period if housing delivery aligns with the proposed requirement.

3.10 At least one economic forecast, produced by Experian, suggests that the Black Country has the potential to create over three times as many jobs over the same period
{2,116pa). The Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP), meanwhile, has previously expressed a target that equates to more than 6,000 jobs per annum if reasonably assumed to be met over twenty years, over ten times more than could be supported by the Draft
BCP.












20 Black Country LEP (March 2017) Black Country Strategic Economic Plan. This references a'2030 target of 569,700
local jobs' (p36) and suggests that this would require an increase of 127,860 from an unspecified base date. With the Black Country LEP only established in 2010, however, it appears that the target could be achieved over no more than 20 years at an implied average rate of circa 6,393 jobs per annum



13

Figure 3.7: Benchmarking job growth supported through the proposed approach

Jobs supported through proposed approach ■ 615




Jobs forecast by Experian as of June 2021 - 2,116




Jobs previously targeted by the LEP 6,393



0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

Jobs per annum



Source: Edge Analytics; Experian; Black Country LEP; Turley analysis

3.11 The proposed housing requirement therefore appears likely to hamper, rather than support, the recovery and growth of the Black Country economy. This is contrary to one of the overarching aims of the Draft BCP, which explicitly seeks to 'attract new businesses and jobs' to the area and:

"... increase employment opportunities to support the delivery of the Black Country and West Midlands Combined Authority Strategic Economic Plans (SEP}, the Local Industrial Strategy and Covid-19 recovery plans"

3.12 It later describes the LE P's 'overall aim of transforming the sub-regional economy by creating the conditions for enterprise to flourish, resulting in greater economic prosperity across the Black Country. It states that its own 'challenge' is to maintain the 'momentum' that has recently led to economic growth, particularly in light of the pandemic, suggesting that 'the Black Country Plan is part of that process in terms of providing employment sites without acknowledging the parallel importance of attracting and retaining labour through making sufficient provision for housing.

3.13 The proposed approach to housing supply does not rise to this 'challenge', threatening instead to stall any 'momentum' that has developed in recent years. It must therefore be reconsidered, with the aim of further boosting housing supply and retaining the benefits that have recently been generated through increased delivery.







21 Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council, Sandwell Metropolitan Borough Council, Walsall Council and the City of
Wolverhampton Council (July 2021) Draft Black Country Plan, paragraph 1.4
? ibid, paragraph 1.11
2 1bid, paragraphs 1.29-1.30



14

Summary

3.14 The Draft BCP identifies sufficient land to provide only 47,878 homes over the plan period, equivalent to 2,518 dwellings per annum which is less than two thirds of the reported need for 4,004 homes per year.

3.15 It represents a level of provision that has been exceeded in each of the last six years, delivery in this period having been boosted by roughly a third (34%) compared to the six years prior. While a similar boost would very nearly meet the minimum need for housing in the Black Country, the Draft BCP instead threatens to bring a 12% reduction compared to the recent trend.

3.16 This would put at risk the benefits generated through the recent boosting of housing supply. The Black Country has historically experienced a net outflow of people to other parts of the UK, for example, but this has more than halved over the past six years to suggest that people are being more effectively attracted and retained, helping to restore a trend of growth in the working age population. Demographic modelling commissioned to inform this report suggests that this is unlikely to continue where housing delivery is allowed to fall, with the proposed level of provision effectively forcing around 5,525 residents to move elsewhere every year- over three times more than in recent years.

3.17 This would be expected to dramatically slow the rate of population growth and reduce the size of the working age population, this combining with potential changes in behaviour to result in a labour force that is capable of supporting only 615 new jobs per year. An economic forecast produced by Experian suggests, for comparison, that the Black Country actually has the potential to create over three times as many jobs, while the Black Country LEP has previously expressed a target that seemingly equates to more than 6,000 jobs, over ten times more than could be supported through the
housing supply identified in the Draft BCP. It therefore appears likely to hamper, rather than support, economic growth and recovery, conflicting with its stated intentions.





























15

4. Proposed supply and evidence base


4.1 The previous section estimated the impact of delivering in line with the proposed housing requirement, which would fall short of meeting the full housing needs of the Black Country and also appears likely to result in a range of adverse consequences. These would only become more pronounced if the proposed requirement is not or cannot be met, through the supply identified on page 90 of the Draft BCP and summarised below.

Table 4.1: Total BCP Supply


Source of supply Number of homes
(Black Country wide)

Current supply (including existing allocations not being
reviewed which are discounted by 10%, commitments which are discounted by 5% and under construction)


21,413

Proposed allocations on occupied employment land (discounted by 15%)


3,091

Sites to be released from Green Belt 7,720

Other urban allocations (discounted by 10%) 6,921

Windfall allowance for small sites of less than 10 homes/
0.25ha
7,651
(circa 402 dpa)

Wolverhampton City Centre upper floor conversions 812

Additional site capacity in strategic centres, to be allocated in
Part 2 Plans 1,300

Total gross new homes 48,908

Dudley estimated housing renewal demolitions -323

Estimated small scale demolition windfalls -748

Total net new homes 47,837


4.2 This section initially reviews the Councils' sources of supply and accompanying evidence base in the context of the NPPF guidance outlined in Appendix 2, specifically to ensure that the BCP must be aspirational but deliverable, identifying a sufficient supply of sites taking into account their availability, suitability and likely economic viability. Those sites should meet the tests of deliverable and developable contained in the NPPF glossary. Section 5 then considers whether the identified supply is likely to actually come forward in the manner envisaged.










16

The structure of the Councils' evidence

4.3 The size of each authority and the number/nature of the sites involved inevitably presents challenges.

4.4 A Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SH LAA) has been prepared by each authority. It is understood that the SHLAAs are a principal supporting document to justify the Councils' supply, however there is a disconnection between the amount of supply identified in the SHLAAs and the scheduled number of homes in the BCP. The Draft BCP does not include a trajectory illustrating the expected rate of housing delivery over the plan period (apart from an overall figure for each authority), as required by paragraph 74 of the NPPF. The BCP should be updated to include a trajectory detailing the expected rates of delivery for individual sources of supply, for
the benefit of the Inspector and interested parties, to readily allow review and scrutiny of the housing supply in the Plan, which is a fundamental issue and affects soundness.

4.5 Furthermore, given the complexity in this case of the numerous sources of supply, it is considered that the Councils should set out the anticipated rate of development for specific sites, as directed by paragraph 74.

4.6 The Sites Assessment Report included in the Councils' evidence base specifically considers some sites' constraints, capacity and availability, but the connection between these sites, the SH LAA, and to which total source of supply they are intended to contribute is unclear.

The Black Country Core Strategy assumptions

4.7 The BCP is stated to be a Local Plan Review. Paragraph 33 of the NPPF states that reviews should take into account changing circumstances affecting the area, or any relevant changes in national policy. The Council refer back to assumptions derived from the Black Country Core Strategy (BCCS) which was adopted in 2011, more than ten
years ago, with an evidence base prepared even before that. The policy context was significantly different, especially in relation to housing provision, than is before us now and under which the BCP will be examined.

4.8 The various iterations of the NPPF over the preceding decade have pivoted the emphasis of national policy even further towards significantly boosting the supply of housing, which inevitably requires taking the most robust and realistic approach to what supply is truly deliverable in plan-making.

4.9 On this basis, and with full regard to the Councils stating that the BCP is a 'Review', it is concerning that the Councils have attempted to simply roll forward assumptions
derived from the BCCS. In the main, these relate to non-implementation discount rates, the deliverability of existing allocations and approach towards some key sources of supply.

4.10 The Urban Capacity Review (May 2021) explains the utilisation of various assumptions derived from the BCCS in determining the urban capacity of the Black Country. It is concerning to see the Councils rolling forward assumptions from the BCCS given the





17

age of the evidence upon which they are based. The assumptions taken forward include:

• Existing allocations not being reviewed which are discounted by 10%; and


• A 15% discount rate on proposed allocations on occupied employment land.


4.11 The Councils also apply a 5% discount rate on sites under co nstruction (considered further below) which has been amended from 10% in the BCCS, but this data has been reconsidered in the 2021 Urban Capacity Review.

4.12 It is not appropriate to roll forward these assumptions without due scrutiny of new evidence in this co ntext. The application of realistic discount rates, taking account of the best available evidence since the BCCS, suggests significant changes should be made to the Councils' claimed deliverable housing supply.

4.13 The Inspector's report on the BCCS at paragraph 48 stated:

48. In particular, we are reassured about the likely potential delivery of new housing by the identified current surplus of about 8% of new housing capacity available against the JCS target, having already allowed for a 15% discount on surplus employment land and a 10% discount on other commitments to take into account delivery constraints, such as ground contamination. Both adjustments seem reasonable and appropriate in general terms for a strategic level assessment, particularly as there is no specific evidence available to justify any preferable alternatives. We therefore conclude that this aspect of the JCS is sound."

4.14 It appears that the BCCS Inspector adopted a set of assumptions in relation to non• implementation rates in a fairly general way, and in the absence of any evidence suggesting any alternative approaches.

4.15 As this report shows, in reality sites have not come forward as predicted by the Councils. A more cautious approach must therefore be taken in the Draft BCP given the evidence which has come to light in the intervening period, and the changing circumstances in national policy.

The relationship with the need for employment land and reliance on the SHLAA

4.16 The BCP evidence base24 conclude there is a gap (shortfall) of 140.3 ha against the demand requirement for employment sites in the Black Country area. The Councils state this will need to be addressed through ongoing Duty to Co-operate engagement with neighbouring local authorities.

4.17 There are a number of sources of the Councils' supply which are proposed on existing vacant or occupied employment land. The NPPF states that a sufficient supply of employment sites should be provided as well as housing. The NPPF is also clear at paragraph 81 that planning policies and decisions should help create the conditions in which businesses can invest, expand and adapt. It states that significant weight should


? 2021 EDNA and Employment Land Supply Technical Paper 2021



18

be placed on the need to support economic growth and productivity, taking into account both local business needs and wider opportunities for development. The approach taken should allow each area to build on its strengths, co unter any weaknesses and address the challenges of the future.

4.18 In this way, the reliance on occupied employment sites to deliver housing instead may directly contradict the intention of national policy to support economic growth and productivity.

4.19 The NPPF requires there to be a realistic prospect that a site will be available and co uld be viably developed at the point envisaged. The fact that many sites in the Councils' trajectory are likely to be in demand for employment land, increases doubt that they will be developed for housing at the point envisaged.

4.20 The NPPF also states at paragraph 68 that strategic policy-making authorities should have a clear understanding of the land available in their area through the preparation of a strategic housing land availability assessment. From this, planning policies should identify a sufficient supply and mix of sites, taking into account their availability, suitability and likely economic viability.

4.21 Having reviewed the four SHLAAs, which are a key source in determination of the urban capacity in the Black Country, we have concerns with the approach taken in the SHLAAs, and any plan making decisions based upon them. The SHLAAs state that:

"Only where a site has a realistically implementable permission for an alternative, non•
housing use will it be removedfrom the list of SHLAA sites"

4.22 This does not account for the likely high number of sites which may have potential for alternative, non-housing uses, but that simply do not benefit from an implementable permission. It could be argued that based on the SH LAA conclusions, these sites are as much possible employment sites as they are housing sites.

4.23 If this is the approach taken to understanding the stock of available housing sites, it is vital that reasonable and realistic planning judgement is then applied when relying on their delivery to meet requirements in the plan period.

The consideration of the likely type and size of housing likely to be delivered

4.24 Paragraph 62 of the NPPF states that the size, type and tenure of housing needed for different groups in the community should be assessed and reflected in planning policies.

4.25 The BCHMA, introduced in section 2 of this report, concludes that the following mix of housing is needed in the plan period.

Table 4.2: Housing Mix Required by Tenure


Owner Pr·vate Shared
Social/
Size of home ied d First Homes Affordable
occupiec rentec Ownership
Rente »d




19

1 bedroom 7,526 2,209 1,322 1,527 2,959

2 bedroom 11,005 2,214 1,72 4 1,953 1,71 5

3 bedroom 12,034 2,018 2,152 1,680 2,555

4+ bedrooms 8,924 3,502 1,208 943 4,287

Total 39,488 9,941 6,407 6,103 11,516

Source: Table 5.10 of March 2021 Black Country Housing Market Assessment

4.26 As a proportion the total housing mix required is as follows:

Table 4.3: Total Housing Mix Required


1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedrooms Total

Total 15,543 18,611 20,439 18,864 73,457

Proportion 21.16% 25.34% 27.82% 25.68% 100.00%

Source: Turley Analysis of March 2021 Housing Market Assessment Data

4.27 From review of the Councils' evidence base supporting the Draft BCP, it is unclear if any assessment of the proposed sources of housing supply has been undertaken in relation to whether the above mix can be delivered in the plan period in full, or even in part. Draft Policy HOU2 ('Housing Density, Type and Accessibility') sets out generic requirements, stating that density and type of new housing provided on any site should be informed by the need for a range of types and sizes to accommodate local needs.

4.28 The Councils' forward housing supply is heavily distorted and relies on previously developed land, with circa 85% of all supply coming from non-greenfield sources. This is reflected in draft Policy HOU2 which drives higher densities when certain criteria are met and the site is located within a Strategic Centre or Town Centre. The densities in
draft Policy HOU2 are also increased from the previous policy context, with justification included in Section 2 of the Urban Capacity Study.

4.29 Given the Councils' forward supply is so reliant on non-greenfield sources, where traditionally certain types and sizes of housing are more readily delivered due to factors such as viability and density, the Councils should closely consider whether the Draft BCP is clear or justified in the approach to supplying the size, type and tenure of housing needed, and what modifications should be made if it comes to light that the BCP is not meeting needs.

















20

5. Assessment of the Councils' housing supply sources


5.1 In assessing whether the 47,837 homes relied on by the Councils is adequately justified and robust, this section considers the following sources of supply:

• Current supply (including existing allocations not being reviewed which are discounted by 10%, commitments which are discounted by 5% and under construction);

• Proposed allocations on occupied employment land (discounted by 15%);

• Windfall allowance for small sites of less than 10 homes/ 0.25ha; and

• Wolverhampton City Centre upper floor conversions.


Current supply - 5% discount on sites under construction

5.2 The current supply source is broken down by source/phasing and LPA below.


Table 5.1: BCP Current Supply by Period


Source Total 2020-2029 2029-2034 2034-2039

Under construction 5,258 5,258 0 0

Sites with PP or PA 7,380 7,244 136 0

Sites with Other Commitment 3,802 2,002 986 814

Existing HA in Strategic Centres 4,973 1,708 1,795 1,470

Source: Table 3 of Draft BCP


Table 5.2: BCP Current Supply by LPA


Source Dudley Sandwell Walsall Wolverh. Under construction 978 624 1,255 2,401
Sites with PP or PA 1,867 2,577 1,105 1,831

Sites with Other Commitment 833 102 2,691 176

Existing HA in Strategic Centres 2,506 201 18 2,248

Source: Table 4 of Draft BCP

5.3 The Councils have adjusted the BCCS discount rate of 10%, to a lesser rate of 5%. The stated justification for the change is based only on data from Wolverhampton City and is absent of data from the three other authorities. This is considered to be insufficient evidence to warrant a significant change in approach which affects a large proportion of the Councils' supply (12,638 homes).




21

5.4 Worse still, the data obtained from Wolverhampton City Council only covers a period from 2001 and 2004. The Council then assert that of the 1,246 homes granted permission in that period, 96% had been built out in the subsequent 17 years.

5.5 This does not constitute rigorous evidence to justify the significant change proposed.
There is clearly a significant data gap here -- the assessment period is very short, and from almost two decades ago, in a different policy context and market conditions. This data gap must be addressed before robust conclusions can be made on what the true level of non-implementation has been in the Black Country.

5.6 The Councils should provide evidence on what the non-implementation rates have been in all of the four Black Country authorities, across a practical period, preferably more up to date and comprehensive than considering planning applications granted only between 2001 and 2004. If this evidence is not forthcoming, the Councils should revert to at least the 10% non-implementation rate on sites under-construction.

5.7 The Councils' supply from these sources, when a 10% non-implementation discount is applied, reverts to (13,270 full stock), 11,943 homes in the plan period, a reduction of
695 homes in the plan period.


Current supply - 10% discount on existing allocations

5.8 A total of 4,973 new homes are identified as being deliverable from this source of supply over the new plan period (2020-39) with the largest contributions to supply coming from Dudley (2,506 homes) and Wolverhampton (2,248 homes).

5.9 The 'Existing Allocations' included in this source of supply are stated by Table 4 in the
Draft BCP as to be located in defined Strategic Centres.

5.10 As a result of being located in Strategic Centres, these sites are allocated in the subsequent Area Action Plans (AAPs) that were intended to deliver the strategic policies for those areas of the BCCS. As far as we can tell, there is no new evidence in relation to them in the Draft BCP. The sites are not, for example, listed individually in the Draft BCP but do appear in the SHLAA.

5.11 The evidence in relation to the deliverability of these sites is therefore included in the AAPs, within which (from our assessment) there is limited evidence of developer involvement or justification/explanation that the allocations were sound, developable or deliverable.

5.12 There are numerous examples in the supporting evidence base and documentation where it is acknowledged by the Councils themselves that there are possible constraints including land ownership, viability, need to relocate existing uses and remediation issues. This immediately casts doubt on whether the sites can be considered developable, which requires the sites to be in a suitable location for housing development with a reasonable prospect that they will be available and could be viably developed at the point envisaged.



?"para2.1.14 0f the Black Country Urban Capacity Review Update (May 2021)



22

5.13 Turley have analysed the status of existing allocations in the Councils' evidence base and consider each authority area in turn below.

Existing Allocations in Dudley
5.14 The Strategic Centre for Dudley is Brierley Hill. In 2011 the Brierley Hill Area Action Plan was examined and adopted (the AAP sets out the details of the sites to deliver the level of housing growth set by the BCCS 2011). The vision for the area in that Plan was that development would have delivered more than 3,200 new homes by 2026.

5.15 Over 26 sites are listed in the AAP as delivering residential uses in the period, the AAP
was adopted in 2011 and so the evidence base for these sites is considered dated.

5.16 There is an Appendix 3 of the Dudley AAP (Implementation Framework) which shows the investment needed to regenerate the area, including identifying funding gaps, issues relocating existing uses. Even at the time of allocating these sites it was acknowledged that significant investment would be needed to bring them forward.

5.17 Within the AAP, at Appendix 4, the anticipated trajectory for delivery at the time of adoption.

Table 5.3: Projected Net Dwelling Completions in Dudley AAP


2009-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26

Net completions 258 369 127 48

Source: AAP Appendix 4

5.18 This delivery has not materialised. The Dudley AMR (2020-2021) explains that the results from this year's monitoring is 'consistent with previous years'; i.e 'limited development has yet taken place within the Brierley Hill APP Plan Area'.

5.19 The only development recorded as progressing in the last monitoring year was the redevelopment of the Canal Street Site (DOB H11) for 65 new affordable dwellings which has now completed, with 33 dwellings completed in this monitoring year and 11 residential units as part of an office conversion (see page 37 of AMR).

5.20 The evidence base suggest that 291 homes (net) have been delivered in the area since
2011. This is less than was anticipated to be delivered in the first five years following the adoption of the AAP (369 were anticipated 2011-2016).

5.21 It is understood that other sites have been granted planning permission, such as Oak Court with 78 approved residential units (ref. P18/1105/PN30 and P19/0830), however completions have not been forthcoming.

5.22 The following table sets out completions against the BCCS requirement in Brierley Hill Strategic Centre and shows that just 10.4% of the requirement has been delivered, with a 2,632 home shortfall.








23

Table 5.4: Brierley Hill Net Completions


13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 Total Target

5 0 186 15 2 7 25 67 307 2,939

Source: Dudley AMR Housing Completions Section Page 7

5.23 The lack of the delivery in the Strategic Location of Brierley Hill is a factor in the under delivery of Dudley as a whole against the adopted CS requirement, as is shown in Table
5.5 below.

Table 5.5: Brierley Hill Completions against target


2006-16 2016-21 2021-26 Total

Completions 5,834 2,883 8,717

BCCS target 8,112 2,670 5,345 16,127

Source: Dudley SHLAA 2019/20 Update

5.24 The Draft BCP does not provide an up to date assessment of the deliverability of
Existing Allocations in Strategic Centres. They appear to have simply been re-included in the Councils' supply without due scrutiny. The Councils also continue to include AAP sites in their assessment of five year housing land supply.

5.25 When reviewing the Council's housing land supply and the sites from the AAP area (page 31 of the 2020 SH LAA) it is clear that there is no up to date evidence to demonstrate that these sites can be relied upon. The evidence for inclusion in the land supply table is described as 'Yield determined through AAP evidence'. This is relying on evidence that was prepared to support a plan that was adopted over a decade ago, where there has been clear and present deliverability issues.

Existing Allocations in Wolverhampton
5.26 As with Dudley, the 2,248 homes due to deliver in the Strategic Centre in Wolverhampton (which is the City Centre) are identified in an Area Action Plan, the latest version of which was adopted in 2016. The aim was for 2,043 homes to be delivered by 2026, with 475 of these by 2021.

5.27 In this case, the AAP does not even explicitly identify all the sites it relies on to deliver these homes. The Core Strategy targets for the AAP area include 2,130 commitments and 1,100 unidentified sites in the City Centre, and 560 homes on employment land to the south of the City Centre.

5.28 At the time of AAP adoption (2016) there had been 470 homes completed in the City Centre and there were 163 homes on committed sites which are not development opportunities in this AAP, the most significant being Low Level Station and Gordon St/ Granville St.








24

Existing Allocations in Sandwell
5.29 The supply figures relied on from existing allocations in Sandwell are lower. The
Strategic Centre in question is West Bromwich for which an AAP was adopted on 4
December 2012. The evidence base was older than that, with Issues and Options in June 2006, Preferred Options in June 2008 and Changes to Preferred Options in January 2011.

5.30 The AAP should have delivered 201 homes, however it is difficult to identify specific numbers allocated as the adopted AAP is vague.

5.31 It is acknowledged that delivery may be slow in the AAP itself with paragraph 4.3 stating that some of the opportunity areas are considered to be more long term and in some instances will require other proposals to have come forward first before they can be delivered.

5.32 It is apparent that there are a number of allocations where delivery issues have come
to light in the period since adoption of the AAP. The Lyng Industrial Estate, for example, was relied on for 300-430 homes, but Table 9 of SH LAA now assigns this site under the category "Sites allocated for housing but now considered not suitable/ developable up to 2039. The change arises from the viability and feasibility study commissioned which highlighted significant viability issues. In addition, the Eastern Gateway North site was identified for around 100 dwellings in the AAP and is now acknowledged in the SH LAA
to have delivery issues relating to its occupation, the generally poor condition of the buildings and external environment and the fact that businesses would need relocating if the site was to come forward for residential development.

Existing Allocations in Walsall
5.33 The Walsall Town Centre AAP (adopted in 2019) allocated the following sites for residential uses as shown on the Policies Map:

• TC11 Kirkpatricks, Charles Street; and

• TC15 FE Towe Ltd, Charles Street.

5.34 Both appear to be industrial employment sites to be redeveloped. The sites are now expected post 2025 in the 2020 SH LAA, however the AAP was more recent than some of the other AAPs, in 2019, and the Council only appear to rely on 18 homes from this source in the Draft BCP.

Conclusion on Existing Allocations
5.35 This source of supply (Existing Allocations in Strategic Centres not subject to review through the BCP) is relied on to deliver 4,973 homes between 2020 and 2039. The Councils claim that the application of a 15% discount rate to these sites is adequate to account for non-implementation.

5.36 There is significant doubt that the sites making up this source of supply are either deliverable or developable.

5.37 The sites are included in documents prepared in the context of the BCCS, and some are more than ten years old. There is a clear record of delivery issues with these




25

allocations, with many of the Strategic Centre AAPs delivering significantly less than was originally anticipated.

5.38 They should not be relied on in the Draft BCP without investigation of site specific evidence through which it can be demonstrated that the sites are deliverable and developable, and thereby passing the NPPF tests. If site specific evidence is available to suggest the sites are deliverable or developable (which we do co nsider may exist for some sites), then they should be re-allocated through the Draft BCP, and fall into another source of the Councils' supply.

5.39 We propose that beyond that no reliance should be placed on sites that have previously been allocated but have not come forward (and so would then be counted as co mmitments).

5.40 As a result, without the necessary evidence base, it is necessary to remove the 4,973 homes, being the total quantum of homes relied on from this source in the plan period. It is nonetheless considered that some of this number could be offset through appropriate re-allocation, or identification of a specific existing allocation where up to date evidence is provided to confirm there is a reasonable prospect that they will be available and could be viably developed at the point envisaged.

5.41 Continued reliance on existing allocations where there is no realistic prospect they will come forward carries a risk of further compounding the pattern of delivery failure.

Proposed allocations on occupied employment land - discounted by 15%

5.42 The Councils rely on 3,091 homes in the plan period from this source. When considered against the NPPF tests, which emphasise 'availability' as a key tenet of being both developable and deliverable, these sites are unavailable as they are presently occupied by existing uses. There are particular risks with bringing forward occupied employment sites, in that they:

• have existing commercial value

• require business relocation

• are often in multiple ownerships without any form of collaboration agreement or equalisation

• have other commercial considerations (such as lease status)

• require land assembly

• will most likely require complex phases of remediation and new infrastructure.

5.43 Whilst the Councils do highlight that investment may be forthcoming to assist land assembly and viability, specific evidence should be submitted for what sites this may affect. The allocation of occupied employment land for housing, in the context of the Councils' own evidence base concluding that there is a gap (shortfall) of 140.3 ha against the demand requirement for employment sites in the Black Country area, casts




26

doubt over whether there is a reasonable prospect that any of this source of supply is developable at all.

5.44 The Councils report, in the Urban Capacity Review, the following historic rates on occupied employment sites.

Table 5.6: Homes Allocated and Delivered on Occupied Employment Land


LPA Allocated Allocated Delivered Delivered % delivered % delivered
{ha) {homes) {ha) {homes) {ha) {homes) Dudley 133 4336 0.5 20 0.38% 0.46% Walsall 75 N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A
Sandwell 311 10541 14 578 4.50% 5.48%

Wolverhampton 43.5 1305 1.5 81 3.45% 6.21%

Total 562.5 16182 16 679 2.84% 4.20%

Source: Turley Analysis of BCP Urban Capacity Review May 2021 Statistics


5.45 The above demonstrates that of the occupied employment land allocated in the previous round of development plan documents associated to the BCCS, just 4.2% of the homes have been delivered.

5.46 It is acknowledged that there are additional permissions which have been granted (193 homes on 4.5ha of land in Dudley, and 510 homes on 23ha of land in Sandwell) but these do not substantially change the conclusion, and these sites remain undelivered.

5.47 The NPPF states that Local Plans must be aspirational but deliverable. A precautionary approach to occupied employment sites must apply given the local track record of delivery, due to the known constraints to delivery of these sites.

5.48 The precautionary principle should apply even more so, given the findings of the
Councils' evidence base and conclusions on employment land over the plan period.

5.49 The Councils apply a 15% discount rate to account for non-implementation, but it is considered that this does not go nearly far enough. The Councils state that the 15% non-implementation rate is supported by the GL Hearn Greater Birmingham HMA Strategic Growth Study (2018) which endorsed application a 15% discount in the Black Country to:

"... take account of the significant proportion of the land supply which comprises employment sites where there are challenges associated with delivery related to assembling land, relocating existing occupiers, and development viability."

5.50 Paragraph 4.123 of that report acknowledges that the discount is:

"...judgement-based and applied for the purposes of this report only and should not be considered to prejudge what allowance should be made for non-implementation in






27

individual local plans or authorities' land supply assessments, which can take account of locally-specific circumstances and evidence."

5.51 It is clear then that the 15% discount was not intended to be relied on in Local Plan preparation, and does not assist in endorsing the Black Country authorities' approach on this matter. It is still necessary for the Councils to prepare their own, authority specific, evidence to support their approach.

5.52 Dudley have undertaken a landowner engagement exercise in relation to assessing the availability of existing employment sites. The Dudley Employment Landowner Engagement Technical Report (August 2021) Appendix B sets out the responses to a direct land owner approach survey. There appears to be only two sites documented where the owners have confirmed availability for the proposed use and the site has also been submitted into the SH LAA for housing availability.

5.53 For the significant majority of sites proposed in this document to be re-allocated for housing, the evidence suggests that no response was received from the landowner.

5.54 Evidence from only one of the four authorities covered by the BCP is insufficient to justify an approach with such strategic implications.

5.55 Given the Councils' track record of delivery and the findings of their evidence base, the BCP should only include sites on occupied employment land that is known to be available, suitable and where some evidence is available of likely economic viability.

5.56 In reality this involves removal of all sites where there is any ambiguity around leases/current employment occupation etc.

5.57 This results in a reduction of the full 3,091 homes relied on from this source in the plan period, based on the Councils' current limited and insufficient evidence base. However, it is suggested that some of this number could be offset through appropriate re• allocation, or identification of specific existing allocation where up to date evidence provided to confirm there is a reasonable prospect that they will be available and could be viably developed at the point envisaged.

Wolverhampton City Centre upper floor conversions

5.58 Being unallocated sites, the upper floor conversions source of supply comprises a windfall allowance.

5.59 The principle behind reliance on a significant windfall from 'upper floor conversions' in Wolverhampton presumably comes from the NPPF reference at paragraph 71 which states that any allowance can consider expected future trends.

5.60 Following consultation in December 2020, the Government proposed as number of amendments to the Town and Country Planning (General Permitted Development) (England) Order 2015 (GPDO) which have now been laid before Parliament in the Town and Country Planning (General Permitted Development) (England) (Amendment) Order
2021. The changes include Class MA business and commercial to residential permitted






28

development rights, which in practice provide permitted development from Class E to
Class C3 residential. The righ ts took effect from 1August 2021.

5.61 There is no evidence to show what delivery has materialised from this source in previous years and there can be no up-to-date and reliable data to show the potential from this source as a result of the expansion of the above PD rights.

5.62 Paragraph 71 also states that where an allowance is to be made for windfall sites as part of anticipated supply, there should be compelling evidence that they will provide a reliable source of supply.

5.63 To this end, the NPPF clarifies that windfall allowances should be realistic, with regard had to the strategic housing land availability assessment and historic windfall delivery rates. There is no evidence in the SH LAA or any data on historic windfall delivery rates of this nature in the Black Country.

5.64 There is no compelling evidence currently provided that a windfall allowance of this nature will provide the supply claimed.

5.65 There are limitations on the scale, conditions to the rights (including that the building must be vacant for 3 months prior to application) and the take-up/market impacts of this change remain to be seen in practice.

5.66 If upper floor conversions are to form part of the Councils' supply, then they should be considered a part of the windfall allowance, which is identified as a separate source.

5.67 We suggest removal of this source entirely (812 homes), as no compelling evidence has been provided to demonstrate that this will constitute a source of supply in the plan period, nor can possibly be available given the time elapsed since the relevant policy change has been in place. If evidence is provided that a realistically consistent source of windfall will arise from upper floor conversions, then they should be considered as part of the main windfall allowance.

Summary of recommended adjustments

5.68 This section has considered the Councils' proposed sources of the supply against the NPPF guidance that the Plan must be aspirational but deliverable. In identifying a sufficient supply of sites the NPPF states that the Councils must consider that those sites are deliverable or developable and account must be taken of their availability, suitability and likely economic viability.

5.69 Concerns have been identified in relation to four of the Councils' sources of supply, and this section sets out the reasons why adjustments should be made to the assumptions made on these sources.

5.70 Based on the above, and amending the Draft BCP to achieve accordance with the NPPF, we recommended the following adjustments to the Councils' land supply:


Source Council Turley
Assumption Assumption
D;frerence




29

Commitments 12,638 11,943 -695

Existing Allocations 4,973 0 -4,973

Occupied Employment Land 3,091 0 -3,091

Wolverhampton CC upper floor conversions 812 0 -812

Plan Period Total 21,514 11,943 -9,571


5.71 These adjustments are clearly significant, and result in the Councils being only able to deliver 38,266 homes in the plan period, which would amount to delivering only half of the reported need for at least 4,004 homes per annum. This would accentuate the aforementioned consequences of failing to meet need in full.























































30

6. Conclusions


6.1 Turley has been commissioned by a consortium of six developers to critically review the approach to housing provision that is proposed in the Draft Black Country Plan ('the Draft BCP') which is currently out for consultation until 11 October 2021.

6.2 The Draft BCP acknowledges an overall need for 76,076 homes throughout the Black Country over the plan period (2020-39). This equates to an average of 4,004 dwellings per annum, aligning closely but not exactly with the minimum need currently and indeed recently suggested by the standard method. While this suggests a need for more homes than have been delivered in any year since at least 2006, it is actually a relatively small number compared to the size of the existing housing stock and would only require growth at the rate since achieved by the West Midlands as a whole, which was bettered by almost half of its thirty authorities in that time. The outcome of the standard method for the Black Country therefore should not be viewed as excessively high, but instead a reasonable benchmark of the minimum need for housing in this
area where it would boost the historic rate of delivery and allow Wolverhampton, as
one of the country's largest cities, to contribute towards meeting a nationwide need for housing. Indeed, there may well be an even greater need for housing where the standard method makes no attempt to predict the impact of changing economic circumstances, for example, and the Councils' evidence base provides no assurance
that there will be sufficient labour to meet the economic growth ambitions of this area.

6.3 The Draft BCP intends to make provision for only 47,878 homes over the plan period, equivalent to 2,518 dwellings per annum. This represents a level of provision that has been exceeded in each of the last six years, with roughly a third (34%) more homes having been delivered than in the six years prior and the Black Country seeing tangible benefits as a result, the area more effectively attracting and retaining people than it has historically for example and therefore once again growing its working age population. Rather than planning positively for a similar boosting that would very nearly meet the minimum need for housing suggested by the standard method, the
Draft BCP instead threatens to reduce the recent rate of delivery by 12%. Demographic
modelling suggests that this would dramatically slow the recent rate of population growth and effectively force around 5,500 residents to move elsewhere every year, over three times more than in recent years. The associated reduction in the size of the working age population, combined with potential behavioural changes, would be expected to leave a labour force capable of supporting only 615 new jobs every year, whereas at least one economic forecast suggests that the Black Country has the potential to create over three times as many jobs and indeed the LEP has previously expressed a target that appears to be over ten times greater.

6.4 This assumes that the proposed requirement can be met through the supply identified in the Draft BCP, which may not be the case based on the analysis in this report. The NPPF requires Local Plans to be aspirational but deliverable, identifying a sufficient supply of sites taking into account their availability, suitability and likely economic viability. Those sites should meet the tests of deliverable and developable contained in the NPPF glossary. It is vital to realistically assess the amount of deliverable supply in plan period, as to overestimate the amount of housing coming forward in the plan




31

period, as appears to be the case here, causes a significant planning harm co nnected to the unnecessary creation of an acute shortfall of housing when individuals require them.

6.5 The Black Country authorities have evidently made a set of assumptions in relation to the housing capacity and deliverability of certain sources of supply, relied upon in the Draft BCP. This report has assessed the proposed sources of supply and identified significant concerns with the assumptions being relied on, with a clear absence of any up-to-date and robust evidence. In some areas the Councils' assumptions are not rigorous enough, the evidence base is inadequate to draw out the co nclusions being relied on, and in our opinion the justification provided falls short given the context and scale of the implications of misjudging the true amount of housing supply.

6.6 Setting realistic delivery assumptions, as required by the NPPF, is essential as planning harm arises when delivery does not co me to fruition. This is evident in the Black Country, where there has been clear issues in delivering sites previously identified in the Black Country Core Strategy (BCCS). Despite this, the Councils seek to simply roll forward the approach taken in that previous plan, with little scrutiny or regard to the effectiveness (or not) of that strategy. This report highlights that:

• In relation to non-implementation of co mmitments, the Councils seek to lower the opposed discount rate based on entirely inadequate evidence, and we propose a reduction of 695 homes to this source in the plan period;

• The Councils rely on existing allocations from previous Plan documents, which are not subject to review through the BCP but have evidently struggled to come forward in the preceding decade. We therefore propose a reduction of 4,973 homes to this source in the plan period;

• The Councils rely on a significant amount of supply from currently occupied employment land, on which there is patently no reasonable prospect that development will come forward at the point envisaged considering the local delivery track record on employment sites, and the wider economic context. The Councils' strategy on these sites may contradict the wider context in the NPPF which also seeks to ensure a sufficient supply of employment sites. We propose
a reduction of 3,091 homes to this source in the plan period; and

• The Councils rely on a significant number of dwellings in Wolverhampton City Centre, where upper floor conversions of retail units are expected to come forward at a given rate. There is no compelling evidence to include this windfall allowance in the BCP supply, and we therefore suggest removal of the entirety of this source (812 homes) in the plan period.

6.7 Based on the above, we conclude that the Draft BCP exaggerates the housing supply that is likely to come forward from its identified sources, by almost 10,000 homes. Unless additional sites are identified, this could lead to the provision of only 38,266 homes over the plan period, or 2,014 dwellings per annum, which is barely half of the identified minimum need for housing in the Black Country. With this report showing that even delivering in line with the proposed requirement would have negative





32

co nsequences for the area, it follows that these co nsequences would be even more pronounced if delivery were to be lower still.

6.8 In progressing the BCP, the Black Country authorities are enco uraged to fundamentally reconsider the proposed approach to housing provision, adding to and scrutinising the identified supply with the aim of further boosting delivery and meeting housing needs in full.






























































33

Appendix 1: Demographic modelling assumptions


This report has referenced demographic modelling produced by Edge Analytics using the industry-standard POPGROUP suite of software. A single scenario has been developed to explore the population growth that could be accommodated over the plan period through the proposed supply of 2,518 dwellings per annum throughout the Black Country, distributed according to Table 4 of the Draft BCP, as well as the employment growth that could be supported as a result.

In essence, this scenario calculates its own assumptions on internal migration (i.e. inflows and outflows of people of different ages, to and from other parts of the UK) which apply from 2020 as the start of the plan period. A larger net inflow is assumed to occur where there are sufficient homes to accommodate it, while a larger net outflow is assumed if not. This has been modelled for individual authorities but aggregated to the Black Country for reporting purposes.

The following assumptions have been applied in developing this scenario:

• Age-specific fertility and mortality assumptions have been derived from the latest available 2018-based sub-national population projections (SNPP);

• The profile of internal migrants has been derived from the alternative internal
migration variant of the 2018-based SNPP, albeit the absolute number of such migrants deviates from this projection depending on the number of homes available;

• The inflow and outflow of international migrants is assumed to align with that suggested by this same variant of the 2018-based SNPP, where it makes an identical allowance to the principal projection;

• The population is converted to households through the application of official 2014- based headship rates, rather than using the assumptions made in subsequent household projections that are widely accepted to be less reliable. These rates have, however, been adjusted in line with the principles of the standard method to allow for a gradual return to the higher rates of household formation seen amongst younger people in 2001, where this is not already anticipated by the official projections?';

• Households have been converted into dwellings by applying vacancy rates drawn from
Council Tax statistics for 2020, which range from 1.5% in Walsall to 2.5% in Sandwell;

• The age- and gender-specific economic activity rates recorded in each authority by the
2011 Census have initially been applied, but the local rates for those aged 16 to 89






26 697 dwellings per annum in Dudley; 482 dwellings per annum in Sandwell; 702 dwellings per annum in Walsall;
and 637 dwellings per annum in Wolverhampton
27 This approach results in adjustments being applied for the 25-34 age group only
2° MHCLG (November 2020) Council Taxbase 2020 in England



34

have been adjusted to reflect national forecasts produced by the Office for Budget
Responsibility29;

• There is assumed to be no change from the commuting ratios recorded by the 2011
Census, with a small net out-commute therefore assumed for the Black Country as a whole;

• The unemployment rate is assumed to align with the average recorded over the past five years" (2016-20), generally allowing for a slight rise from the levels recorded in
2020 - except in the case of Dudley- but remaining lower than the long-term averages; and

• A fixed proportion of employed people are assumed to occupy more than one job ('double jobbing') based on the long-term average of 2.3% recorded over the last ten years throughout the Black Country by the Annual Population Survey.

Bromwich Lane, Pedmore A Sustainable Development Opportunity
Introduction






PURPOSE


To accord with the Government's objective of boosting housing supply in response to the ongoing housing crisis and the National Planning Policy Framework's (NPPF) requirement for local plans to meet the development needs of their area (including its housing needs), the Black Country Authorities (BCAs) must maximise housing delivery from all suitable development sites within sustainable locations. That matter is discussed in detail in the representations submitted by William Davis Homes (WDH) alongside this Vision Document.

Whilst those representations object to the level of growth that the BCAs are proposing to accommodate within their own jurisdiction (with the BCAs seeking to export some 28,000 dwellings to its surrounding authorities despite those authorities being similarly constrained), there is a clear acceptance by the BCAs that the release of Green Belt sites in sustainable locations is required to meet their need.

Green Belt release is justified given the exceptional circumstances present by virtue of the BCAs' significant housing need (which totals c. 76,000 homes over the plan period), and that all other opportunities have been maximised; including substantive brownfield development within the Black Country's cities and towns. In that context, the NPPF is clear that authorities must identify a sufficient number of sites in sustainable locations so as to achieve a sustainable pattern of development.

The merits of Ped more as an inherently sustainable location for growth are set out both within this document and WDH's representations, which note that the settlement is adjacent to the urban area of Stourbridge and itself has a healthy provision of services and facilities. As such, the settlement should play a key role in accommodating strategic housing delivery in order to meet the BCAs' own housing needs.

In that context, Bromwich Lane (the site) is an entirely appropriate location to accommodate residential development, and indeed the site's development would meet the objectives of the Black Country Plan in bringing forward development in less sensitive areas, rounding off the settlement form, and providing a defensible Green Belt boundary.
As such, and given that the delivery of 85- 100 dwellings would increase the proportion of the BCAs' needs that is met by the plan, the site should be allocated within the next iteration of the plan.


THE SITE


Land east of Bromwich Lane lies on the southern edge of Pedmore, a residential suburb of Stourbridge. It is approximately 4.2 hectares in size and comprises an open triangular field used as a horse paddock. It is bound by mature tree belts and hedgerows on its southern and western edges, and the rear gardens of properties on Cherrington Gardens and Wychbold Close to the east. A small paddock also abuts the site to the north beyond which lies Wychbury Care Home on the Hagley Road (A491).

The western extent of the site has a frontage with Bromwich Lane, a residential street linking Hagley Road to the north-east and Worcester Lane to the south-west. The northern side of Bromwich Lane is lined by large individual residential properties along its entire length. Residential estates lie beyond those to the north and west of the site. Agricultural land lies to the south of the site.


THE OPPORTUNITY


The emerging Masterplan proposals presented in this Vision Document highlight how the development of the site would deliver an attractive and sustainable development that respects and directly responds to the site's features and setting as a natural extension to the existing settlement form of Ped more.

It is, therefore, suggested that the site is removed from the Green Belt and allocated for residential development in the Black Country Plan so that its delivery can make a key contribution to meeting the authorities significant housing needs.

That should be reflected through amendments to the plan ahead of the publication of the Regulation 19 plan and indeed William Davis would very much welcome the opportunity to discuss their site, its potential allocation for development and the emerging development
proposals with the Council.
PURPOSE AND STRUCTURE


In that context this Vision Document has been prepared on behalf of William Davis Ltd to highlight the merits and capacity of land to the east of Bromwich Lane, Ped more as a future residential development site.

The Vision Document is structured as follows:


Section 2: A Sustainable Location for Development- Considers the site's relationship with the sustainable settlement and the services and facilities therein;

Section 3: Site Assessments - highlights the relative lack of constraints to its development based on a number of technical and environmental assessments;

Section 4: Settlement and Landscape - Examines the site's context and explains why the site's development would have a relatively limited impact on landscape character and visual amenity;

Section 5: Green Belt - Sets out why the site makes a limited contribution to the purposes of the Borough's Green Belt;

Section 6: Site Synthesis - Considers other environmental and infrastructure matters and draws the preceding analysis together; and

Section 7: Masterplan - Presents a vision for the site; demonstrating its deliverability and highlighting the role it can play in meeting the Borough's identified housing needs.



Bromwich Lane, Pedmore A Sustainable Development Opportunity 5
A Sustainable Location








PEDMORE THE SITE


The site is located on the southern edge of Pedmore, a residential suburb of Stourbridge, a large town within the Metropolitan Borough of Dudley. Stourbridge contains a full range of high order services and community facilities, but Pedmore itself also has a range of local services and facilities. They include Ped more C of E Primary School, a convenience store, the Parish Church of St Peter, Ped more Cricket club and a local park. The facilities and retail services in Hagley and West Hagley to the south of the site would also be easily accessible via the A491 and B4187. They include the Medical Centre at Pedmore Road.

Pedmore is also well served by public transport links. Bus route 318 runs close to the site along Hagley Road (the A491) linking to both Stourbridge Bus Station and Bromsgrove Bus Station. Stourbridge Junction Train Station and Hagley Train Station are also located
nearby.
Whilst the site currently forms part of the designated Green Belt, it is otherwise relatively unconstrained. Landscape and Green Belt matters are considered in detail in the following sections of the Vision Document, as is the site assessment work undertaken.

The site assessments undertaken thus far relate to access, drainage, ecology, arboriculture, and heritage, and the findings summarised in the following section demonstrate that the site is an entirely suitable development site in an accessible and unconstrained location.

The detailed assessment reports can be provided upon request.


. .
Site Assessments









ACCESS ECOLOGY ARBORICULTURE


An appropriate vehicular access can be provided from Bromwich Lane and there are also opportunities to improve pedestrian facilities.

Bromwich Lane varies in width between approximately 47m, with a speed limit of 30mph. There are two priority-controlled one-way sections of road, which are located adjacent to the centre of the site frontage and the north-east extent of the site boundary. No footways are present on Bromwich Lane along the site frontage, however there is a footway available adjacent to the Bromwich Lane/Redlake Drive Junction immediately south-west of the site. In addition to this, there are public footpaths located approximately 35m south-west of the Bromwich Lane/Redlake Drive Junction and immediately south of the Bromwich Lane/Ferndale Park Junction 100m north-east of the site.

The site access from Bromwich Lane would be 7.3m wide, with 2.4m x 43m visibility splays as shown in the Masterplan. Bromwich Lane would be widened where feasible along the site frontage to 6m in width to accommodate the additional traffic generated by the proposed development. This would include removing the west priority-controlled section of road along Bromwich Lane to achieve unrestricted two-way vehicular movements.

Bromwich Lane is well connected to the centre of Pedmore by Redlake Drive and Hagley Road, which provide access to local bus services and facilities, including Pedmore C of E Primary School, Pedmore Cricket Club and Pedmore SPAR Convenience Store. The Masterplan incorporates pedestrian facilities on site to connect to the existing footways adjacent to Redlake Drive route northbound and provide a connection onto public rights of way (PROW) STR0145/6.


8
The site is not subject to any nature conservation designations and whilst some protected species are likely to be present in the area they can be accommodated and the ecological value of the site as a whole can be enhanced through the proposed development.

An ecological appraisal was completed in 2018 involving a consultation with the local Environmental Records Centre and an extended Phase 1
Habit Survey. The appraisal concluded that the proposed development would not have any significant impact on any sites designated for their nature conservation interest. Habitats on site are considered to be of low value for reptiles and great crested newts. The hedgerows and areas of scrub along the boundaries provide suitable habitat for foraging and commuting bats and black poplar with moderate potential to support roosting bats is present in the south-west corner of the site. but the site offers limited foraging habitat

Hedgerows are a habitat of principal importance and provide structural diversity, connectivity, foraging and nesting habitats and are of ecological value at a local level. It is recommended that the hedgerows recorded on site are retained as far as practicable within the scheme and appropriately buffered with native species planting. Areas of scrub with trees and small areas of tall ruderal were also recorded along boundaries. The areas of scrub and associated habitats are largely retained within the Masterplan and are to be enhanced through the creation of an attenuation pond, species-rich grassland and planted with native scrub.

The current habitats forming the site are generally of low ecological value with most of the site formed by grazed poor semi-improved grassland. Any loss of grassland habitat will be mitigated through the landscaping scheme outlined in the Masterplan via the creation of smaller areas of more species-diverse native grassland within the retained green corridor along the western boundary. A network of residential garden and tree and shrub planting within the sites' green infrastructure will provide further ecological enhancements and the implementation of such mitigation would ensure no net loss to biodiversity as required by NPPF 2018.



Bromwich Lane, Pedmore
The position of trees around the sites' boundaries allows for the majority not to be impacted upon by the proposals. Generous landscape buffers allow for the trees to be retained and incorporated into areas of public open space. New tree planting is shown in the Masterplan that reinforces the green infrastructure on site and aids in the incorporation of the proposals into the existing landscape.

The only tree removal from site would be from tree group G4, to facilitate a suitable vehicular access point into the site from Bromwich Lane. An arboricultural assessment has confirmed G4 is a dense group of boundary trees that is considered to be of moderate arboricultural and landscape value. The removal of a section of this tree group would be unavoidable for the site to be developed, as it runs along the length of the boundary with Bromwich Lane from which the vehicular access must be provided. Although the Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council Tree Preservation Order (TPO566) protects this tree group, the loss of this small section of G4 would not diminish the group's overall amenity value and appropriate mitigation for the loss can be provided in conjunction with development .


DRAINAGE


The site is not located in the floodplain and SUDS can be provided within the development to provide surface water attenuation. There is also capacity within the existing foul sewerage network to accommodate the proposed development.

The site is underlain by the Helsby Sandstone Formation. Soakaway testing results show that whilst water does soak into the ground in the southern portion of the site, the topographical low point soakaway potential is low. Furthermore, there are no existing ditches on the site that could provide a viable receptor for the surface water from the proposed development. There is, however, a surface water sewer located in Redlake Drive (manhole reference 8452) and Severn Trent Water would accept flows into that manhole, if soakway testing proves that infiltration is not a viable option for the site. In order to ensure post development flows do not exceed greenfield run off rates, storage is required to attenuate post-development surface water runoff as show in the Masterplan.


Bromwich Lane, Pedmore A Sustainable Development Opportunity
Settlement and Landscape



LANDSCAPE CHARACTER VISUAL AMENITY


Ped more forms part of the wide "Stour Valley" as referred to in Dudley MBC's Borough-Wide Urban Historic Landscape Characterisation Study (2016) where: 'Much ofthe formerly open farmland was also subsumed by major expansion of the area's settlements in response to an ever• rising population, Stourbridge in particular expanded dramatically."

The site itself lies within "Ped more Common": " Forming the remainder of the southern Green Belt west ofPedmore over the sandstone, the rural character of the area can be traced back to agricultural enclosures of the medieval landscape in the 18th Century including parkland around Pedmore Hall and Hagley Hall."

The study also refers to Areas of High Historic Landscape Value. A large area is designated to the east of the A491, including Pedmore Hall and the very prominent Wychbury Hill that provides an important local landmark to the east of the site. The hilltop is marked by the widely visible Obelisk, woodland blocks which form part of the listed Hagley Hall Park and Garden, and the Wychbury Ring hillfort (a scheduled ancient monument).

The A491, urban development along it, and the settlement forms of Pedmore and Hagley represent a clear physical and visual break in the landscape of the area and a transition in the landscape character to the west. That is recognised in the Worcestershire County Council Landscape Character Assessment.

Wychbury Hill and Hagley Park form part of the Large Wooded Hills and Farmland Landscape Type that stretches to the Clent Hills to the south east. It is largely characterised by its prominent sloping topography, and large discrete woodland blocks framing fields enclosed with hedgerow boundaries that creates a landscape "with an inherently large scale and strength".

The land at the base of Wychbury Hill located between the A491 and
81487 (including the site) and the land to the south of Hagley form part of the Estate Farmlands Landscape Type. That is: "An ordered agricultural landscape characterised by sub-regular pattern of medium to large sized fields, small geometric plantations and groups of ornamental trees associated with large country houses"

The Estate Farmlands Landscape Type is a lowland area where the landscape character is derived from the (planned) tree cover and field pattern defined by hedgerow boundaries and mixed agricultural use. There is some evidence of hedgerow loss and deterioration in the area, and the study refers to enhancing the landscape with further woodland planting (small plantations and tree belts) and restoration of the primary hedgerow pattern.

The study highlights the similarity with the Sandstone Estates Landscape Type that stretches beyond the 81487 to the east on gently rising land dissected by the railway line, albeit the field pattern there is larger, more regular and almost entirely in arable use.

The landscape character of the site itself and the land to the immediate south of the site reflects certain aspects of the Estate Farmlands Landscape Type. It has a gentle rolling topography and benefits from a robust landscape framework; notably the mature tree belts and hedgerows that mark the site's boundaries. It is, however, a relatively ordinary mixed agricultural use area, and is not considered to be particularly sensitive in landscape terms. Indeed, the landscape character is undoubtedly also affected by the relationship with the adjacent built form that encloses and defines the area and also provides visual containment, but commonly with a severe transition between the urban and rural areas.

The residential development of the site would, therefore, have a minimal impact on the landscape character of the surrounding area. It would not at all appear incongruous given that it would be contained on
2 of its 3 sides by existing residential development. Moreover the key landscape features that define the site can be retained, enhanced, and supplemented with additional tree planting as an integral part of the development that will provide a softer transition to the retained fields to the south and contributing to the wider Estate Farmlands Landscape Type as highlighted above.


Bromwich Lane, Pedmore

The visual amenity of the site and its surroundings has been appraised through the preparation of a Zone of Theoretical Visibility (ZTV) and consideration of key views as presented on the following pages.

The ZTV takes into account the screening provided by the area's topography, significant vegetation and buildings. The lighter areas represent locations where there would be a potential view of the site on that basis, with the darker areas representing those areas where there would not. It clearly demonstrates the visual containment that the site benefits from. Indeed, potential views of the site are limited to its immediate surrounds to the north and east, to up to 600m to the southeast to the northern edge of Hagley, and an area 1-1.3km on the rising land beyond the railway line to the west of the site. The ZTV also indicates that there maybe views of the site from the prominent Wychbury Hill to the east and the Clent Hills to the south east.

Views of the site from Bromwich Lane and the properties that line it to the north are screened by the mature woodland belt along the site's boundary. There is, however, a clear visual relationship with the properties that back on to the site to the east (Wychbold Close and Cherrington Gardens) that are slightly elevated and often have visually open boundaries. That relationship has been carefully considered in the development of the scheme proposals. The ZTV indicates that the site is also visible from the properties on the northern edge of Hagley. However, a localised ridge and the layering of hedgerows in the intervening area effectively limits that to circa 6 properties on Middlefield Lane. That very limited impact can be further mitigated by the proposed landscape planting.

An appraisal of key views from public vantage points in the wider area, notably from the public right of way network, has been undertaken. That highlights that any built development on the site would be viewed in the context of the existing built form. That is often more prominent than the development on the site would be, given its robust landscape framework and the proposed landscape planting that would form an integral part of the development. Consequently, it can be concluded that any residential development on the site would be visually very discrete, well integrated into its context and, therefore, the impact on visual amenity would be minimal.


CONTEXT COUNTRYSIDE ENCROACHMENT THE SITE
The site's location and aspect mean that it does not form a particularly sensitive part of the Green Belt, and its development would not undermine the purposes of the remaining Green Belt as considered below.

URBAN SPRAWL

The site is already bordered to the west, north and east by well established development and it is located close to the Hagley Road that leads to the heart of Pedmore to the north. The location and nature of the site would, therefore, allow it to be developed in a compact form that relates well to the existing built form, consolidating the overall pattern of development on this edge of the urban area and avoiding urban sprawl (see Figure opposite). It would also provide a sympathetic and well defined edge to the countryside to the south and east, sitting unobtrusively within its setting by virtue of the nature of the surrounding topography and screening provided by the existing vegetation.

COALESCENCE

The development of the site would have a minimal impact in terms of the coalescence of settlements. Whilst the site does form part of the gap between Pedmore and Hagley to the south, its development would not extend the urban from of Ped more any further south than the established residential areas to both the west and east.

Moreover, whilst the eastern part of the site is currently visible in views from the 84187 (VP2), the western part of the footpath that crosses the fields to the south of the site (VP 3) and the public rights of way network on the higher land to the west of the railway line (VPs 4 &
5), the proposed development of the site would actually result in little contrast with the existing views. The new dwellings would sit in front of and below the existing development, would be well screened by the landscape framework (particularly with the proposed mitigation), and appear further way than the existing built form, notably the prominent dwellings further west on Bromwich Lane. To the east the local topography and the development that lines the A491 means that the site's development would not be perceptible from Hagley.

There would, therefore, be little or no impact on the perception of the identity of the two settlements in this locality.

Whilst the site's development would represent a limited encroachment into the countryside (in so far as the development of any greenfield site would), the surrounding urban form (on 2 of its 3 sides), and established landscape structure around its boundaries and in the fields to the south would very much negate the perception of encroachment. Indeed, as described in the preceding section the visibility of the development would be largely limited to the site's immediate environs. Moreover, the proposed landscape buffer will provide further mitigation.

HISTORIC TOWNS

Neither Ped more or Hagley are specifically identified as historic towns. Indeed, the contemporary growth of both settlements is evident in the established residential areas in Ped more to the north of the site, and indeed, further south in Hagley.

URBAN REGENERATION

The site performs the same role in relation to this matter as any other greenfield site within the designated Green Belt in the Borough.

SUMMARY

The development of the site will inevitably result in the growth of Pedmore's urban form and an encroachment on the surrounding countryside, but the location and aspect of the site combined with the landscape structure mean that it does not form a particularly sensitive part of the Green Belt and the degree of harm arising would be limited. Moreover, as described in the following pages the proposed development will incorporate substantial green space buffers with significant tree and shrub planting, notably along the site's southern boundary. That further mitigates the potential impact on the Green Belt purposes and will create a clear and robust defensible boundary to the remaining Green Belt.


SITE ANALYSIS

In light of the preceding analysis, the following matters have informed the preparation of the proposals for its development:

1. The site is largely screened from the surrounding area by established and maturing tree belts along the southern and western boundaries and by properties and garden vegetation along the eastern boundary.

2. A section ofthe southern hedgerow would benefit from reinforcement, due to the lack of trees, to offer further screening of the site.

3. The site benefits from a frontage to Bromwich Lane along its western boundary. This is currently defined by a mature roadside hedgerow and trees which limit views, but it provides an opportunity to appropriately access the site.

4. Private rear gardens define most of the eastern site boundary. Properties along this edge are largely elevated above most of the site and as such are visible within the wider landscape. Development of the site provides an opportunity to soften this settlement edge; generous rear gardens and buffer planting will be required when backing onto
this boundary to prevent overlooking.
5. The site mainly comprises of an open grassed field. Trees and vegetation within the site are confined to its boundaries within which habitat constraints are evident.

6. The eastern extents of the site are sloping, with land rising up towards Hagley Road. Careful consideration of the siting of development within this location will be required.

7. Dwellings within the immediate context of the site are generally large detached properties with landscaping and car parking to front. Larger front gardens and tree/shrub planting filter the development edge to varying degrees along Bromwich Lane.

8. Layering of field boundary vegetation and the existing settlement form further increases the level of screening of the site, generally limiting views from publicly accessible routes to more elevated locations. Where the site is visible within the wider landscape, it is viewed within the context of neighbouring properties and is largely nestled within mature tree and hedgerow planting.


SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT



Provide new housing that sits comfortably within the existing settlement fabric and sensitively responds to adjacent land uses and views of the site from the wider landscape.
LANDSCAPE FRAMEWORK



Create a strong landscape framework that shapes the development proposals allowing it to carefully assimilate with its surroundings. Green fingers would extend into the site from the south, existing hedgerow corridors would be retained and reinforced (where necessary) and bands of new tree
planting on the higher ground would create a green canopy within which new housing could nestle.


DEVELOPMENT CHARACTER



Create a series of activity/meeting spaces within the scheme to shape the development, aid legibility, encourage social cohesion and provide further opportunities for tree planting.
SUSTAINABLE DRAINAGE



Provide a sustainable drainage solution that utilises the site's landform and is well integrated within the landscape framework to positively contribute towards the creation of wildlife habitats and attractive landscape features.

Site Area: 4.23ha

Net Developable Area: 2.86ha

Green Infrastructure: 1.37ha

Density: c.30-35 dwellings per hectare Capacity: c.85-100 dwellings, including 30% affordable homes (in accordance with emerging policy)
Public Open Space Requirement (on site): 0.15-

0.18ha of amenity green space based on 0.81ha per 1,000 population I 2.2pph (in accordance with most recent standards).


POS provision to be updated to reflect revised standards when published.
Conclusion








Land east of Bromwich Lane, Pedmore is an entirely suitable development site in an accessible and unconstrained location.

Given that there is a clear case to allocate further development sites in order to meet the housing needs of the BCAs in the plan period as set out in WDH's representations to the plan, the site could and should be removed from the Green Belt and allocated for future residential development.

In that context, the site and Masterplan proposals for the delivery of circa 85-100 new homes accords with the provisions of the NPPF and would constitute "sustainable development". Indeed, the proposed development would result in a number of significant economic, social and environmental benefits.

The development would provide much needed housing, including affordable housing, on a suitable site in a sustainable location, where residents will have access to a wide range of facilities, services and employment opportunities in Pedmore, and in Stourbridge, Dudley and Birmingham via the nearby train and bus services.

The Masterplan clearly demonstrates how a high quality housing development that respects its relationship with both the surrounding urban form and countryside, and uses the site in an effective and efficient manner, would be delivered. Notably, the Masterplan seeks to ensure that the proposals respond to the surrounding landscape character by retaining and enhancing the boundary hedgerows and trees within the site, and by providing new public open space along the southern and western edges.

The site is available, suitable and the proposed development is deliverable. This Vision Document, therefore, clearly demonstrates that the site is a realisable opportunity that would make a significant contribution to meeting the identified market and affordable housing needs within the plan period, and the site should therefore, be allocated for development in the forthcoming Regulation 19 version of the plan alongside other substantial modifications to ensure that the plan more fully meets the BCAs' own needs.